U.S. stock index futures moved up slightly on Monday as investors digested signs that negotiations to halt fighting in the Middle East could be advancing. The prior session had produced the largest weekly rise for the main indexes in about four months, and markets appeared to take some comfort from reports that a framework for ending the conflict had been circulated.
According to published reporting, the United States and Iran received a framework plan aimed at ending hostilities. That development came a day after President Donald Trump warned he would unleash what he called "hell" on Tehran if a deal were not reached. Iran, however, stated that the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened under a temporary ceasefire.
Investors also noted an Axios story, citing four people familiar with the discussions, which said the United States, Iran and a group of regional mediators are negotiating terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire. Those reports helped underpin cautious optimism that fighting could pause, even as constraints on strategic waterways were emphasized by Iranian authorities.
Energy markets showed a modest retracement on Monday, with oil prices easing slightly and several U.S. energy stocks trading lower in premarket activity. Exxon Mobil fell about 1.3%, Chevron slipped roughly 1% and Occidental Petroleum was down near 1.7% before the opening bell.
Wall Street’s primary indexes finished mixed on the most recent trading day, but managed their first weekly gains in six weeks as the prospect of an end to the conflict offered some respite. The hostilities have now entered a second month after severely affecting global markets during March. Over that period the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq registered their steepest monthly declines since 2022, while the Dow, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 fell into correction territory, each trading more than 10% below their record high closes.
Market participants also noted that trading volumes on Monday were expected to be light, with a number of European and Asian markets closed for public holidays. At 04:50 a.m. ET, the futures contracts showed modest gains: Dow E-minis were up 73 points, or 0.16%; S&P 500 E-minis were up 24.25 points, or 0.37%; and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 159.25 points, or 0.66%.
Investors will focus on domestic inflation data this week to determine whether the spike in energy costs linked to the Iran war has begun to feed through into the broader economy. Those readings will follow March jobs data released on Friday showing U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected, the largest monthly increase in 15 months.
Money market traders were pricing out any interest-rate easing from the central bank for the remainder of the year, a shift from expectations of two rate cuts that prevailed prior to the onset of the conflict, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
In premarket corporate news, shares of Soleno Therapeutics jumped more than 30% after the Financial Times reported that Neurocrine Biosciences was close to agreeing to acquire the rare genetics drugmaker for in excess of $2.5 billion.
What this means for markets
- The potential for a temporary ceasefire has broadly supported risk assets, though gains were measured.
- Energy-sector equities moved lower as oil eased, reflecting investor sensitivity to both supply risks and details of any ceasefire.
- Economic data this week, especially inflation measures, will be watched closely for signs that higher energy prices are affecting broader price pressures.