Stock Markets March 25, 2026

U.S. Futures Hold Steady as Iran Reviews U.S. Ceasefire Offer

Markets tread carefully after Tehran signals conditional openness to a Washington ceasefire plan while also pushing its own demands

By Ajmal Hussain
U.S. Futures Hold Steady as Iran Reviews U.S. Ceasefire Offer

U.S. stock index futures were largely unchanged Wednesday evening after Iran said it was reviewing a 15-point ceasefire proposal reportedly sent by Washington. The announcement followed a choppy but positive trading day on Wall Street, where indexes trimmed intraday gains as Tehran pushed back against elements of the U.S. plan and signaled requirements for any talks.

Key Points

  • U.S. stock index futures were largely steady after Iran said it was reviewing a reported 15-point ceasefire proposal from Washington - equity markets displayed muted moves following a choppy but positive trading session.
  • Iran signaled conditional openness to negotiations through statements by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi but emphasized that mediator messages did not equate to formal talks; Tehran also insisted any ceasefire include Lebanon.
  • Oil prices reacted to the diplomatic developments - falling after the ceasefire reports on Wednesday and then rising in early Asian trade on Thursday - indicating direct impact on the energy sector alongside broader equity market sensitivity.

U.S. equity futures were steady on Wednesday evening after Iranian officials said they were reviewing a ceasefire proposal from the United States that had briefly eased market nerves earlier in the session.

By 20:19 ET (00:19 GMT), S&P 500 Futures had edged lower to 6,639.25 points. Nasdaq 100 Futures held steady at 24,371.0 points, and Dow Jones Futures slipped modestly to 46,689.0 points. The moves followed a mixed intraday pattern on Wall Street that had been buoyed when reports emerged that Washington had put forward a 15-point plan aimed at halting the recent hostilities in the Middle East.


Iran says it is reviewing the U.S. proposal

State media reported late on Wednesday that Iran is reviewing the ceasefire proposal but that Tehran does not intend to enter talks simply to declare negotiations are underway. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, speaking on state television, indicated a degree of conditional openness - saying Iran could consider negotiating if its demands were satisfied - while stressing that intermediary messages did not amount to active negotiations.

Reports further indicated that Iran is insisting any ceasefire proposals involving the U.S. and Israel also include Lebanon. Those comments followed an initial rejection by Tehran of the reported 15-point U.S. plan and suggest Iran is seeking additions or changes before engaging further.


How markets reacted

Although major U.S. indexes finished the day in positive territory, they gave back much of their intraday strength as the situation returned to ambiguity. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to close at 6,591.94 points, the NASDAQ Composite advanced 0.8% to 21,929.83 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained nearly 0.7% to end at 46,428.57 points.

Market participants were also parsing reports that Iran had presented its own five-point ceasefire outline. That plan reportedly calls for reparations from the U.S. and Israel for damage caused during recent clashes and proposes a possible toll system for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Mixed signals continued to feed uncertainty. The White House warned it would "unleash hell" on Iran if Tehran did not accept military defeat, a statement that underscores the tensions underpinning the market moves.

Commodities moved with the headlines: oil prices fell on Wednesday after reports of the U.S. ceasefire proposal, though they were observed rising in early Asian trade on Thursday.


Bottom line

Traders entered a holding pattern as Tehran’s conditional review of a U.S. proposal left open multiple outcomes. The combination of tentative diplomatic language from Iran, competing ceasefire proposals, and strong rhetoric from Washington kept volatility potential intact for equity and energy markets.

Risks

  • Unclear negotiation status - Iran said it was reviewing the U.S. proposal but denied that talks were in progress, creating uncertainty that could increase volatility in equities and commodities, particularly energy.
  • Competing proposals - Tehran reportedly offered a separate five-point plan demanding reparations and suggesting a Strait of Hormuz toll, which could complicate diplomatic progress and sustain risk premia in oil markets and shipping-related sectors.
  • Escalatory rhetoric - the White House warning that it would "unleash hell" if Iran did not accept military defeat introduces a risk of heightened geopolitical tension that could affect defense, insurance, and energy markets.

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