Stock Markets March 31, 2026

U.S. Futures Climb as Trump Signals Imminent End to Iran Conflict

Equity futures advance after sharp Wall Street rebound tied to comments about U.S. military withdrawal and continued uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz

By Ajmal Hussain
U.S. Futures Climb as Trump Signals Imminent End to Iran Conflict

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Tuesday evening following a strong session on Wall Street after President Donald Trump said U.S. military operations in Iran would end within weeks. The move capped a month-end rebound after steep losses in March, with technology shares leading gains. Markets digested comments about a planned military drawdown, prospective impacts on oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and tentative responses from Iranian officials.

Key Points

  • U.S. equity futures rose Tuesday night following a sharp rally on Wall Street after President Trump said the U.S. military would leave Iran in two to three weeks.
  • Major benchmarks rebounded strongly on Tuesday: S&P 500 surged 2.9%, Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.8%, and the Dow rose 2.5% as month-end buying and bargain hunters stepped in after steep March losses.
  • Technology stocks led the advance amid heavy bargain buying; the sector had been hit by doubts over long-term AI-related returns and concerns about slowing AI-driven demand for chips.

U.S. stock-index futures pushed higher on Tuesday night after a broad rally on Wall Street, reflecting investor reaction to President Donald Trumps public comments on the month-long Iran conflict. Traders had already moved to buy into weakness following sharp losses across U.S. equities in March, and the presidents remarks appeared to reinforce the recovery.

By 20:59 ET (00:59 GMT) S&P 500 Futures were up 0.3% at 6,591.75 points. Nasdaq 100 Futures were higher by 0.5% at 24,035.0 points, while Dow Jones Futures rose 0.2% to 46,653.0 points. Those moves followed a session in which major U.S. indexes climbed between roughly 2.4% and 3.9%.


Trump outlines withdrawal timeline, declares objectives met

Mr. Trump said on Tuesday that the U.S. military would leave Iran in two to three weeks, asserting that his stated objectives of hobbling Irans nuclear ambitions had been achieved and that the U.S. had secured regime change in Tehran. He also signaled that reopening the Strait of Hormuz - the strategic shipping lane that accounts for roughly 20% of global oil consumption - would not be pursued as part of a drawdown.

Earlier on Tuesday, the president said countries that did not aid the U.S. and Israel in attacks on Iran could either buy oil from the United States or "just take it" from Hormuz. He further said that U.S. gasoline prices would fall once military operations in Iran ceased, without providing additional detail on timing or mechanisms.

Trump is scheduled to address the nation on Iran at 21:00 ET (23:00 GMT) on Wednesday.


Tehrans response and maritime uncertainty

Iranian officials indicated a degree of openness to a U.S. military deescalation, but warned that a new maritime regime could be implemented in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran had previously proposed a toll system for vessels transiting Hormuz - a measure flagged in statements as one that could keep oil prices elevated in the near term.

Reports earlier in the week suggested the president was amenable to ending the Iran conflict without reopening Hormuz, a view that gained attention as the confrontation appeared likely to extend beyond an initial four-to-six-week window.


Market reaction - month-end buying and sector leadership

Wall Street staged a notable month-end rally, as the S&P 500 rose 2.9%, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 3.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5% on Tuesday. Those gains followed a difficult March, when the three indexes each recorded losses in the range of 4.8% to 5.5%.

Technology shares led Tuesdays advance, drawing heavy bargain-buying after extended declines through March. The sector had been pressured by investor concerns about the sustainability of returns tied to artificial intelligence disruptions, and by worries that AI-driven demand for semiconductors could slow, weighing on major chipmakers.


The combination of statements about an impending U.S. military withdrawal, month-end rebalancing activity, and tactical bargain buying among investors contributed to the late-session gains in futures. Yet several uncertainties highlighted by officials on both sides - including the status of Hormuz and the lack of specifics on energy-price impacts - leave markets with variables to monitor in coming days.

Risks

  • Uncertainty over the status of the Strait of Hormuz - Iranian statements about a possible new maritime regime or a toll system could sustain higher oil prices in the near term - this impacts energy and transport sectors.
  • Lack of detail on how and when U.S. gasoline prices would fall following any cessation of operations in Iran - creates uncertainty for consumer spending and energy-sensitive parts of the market.
  • Potential extension of the conflict beyond early timelines - reports noted the confrontation could outlast initial expectations, which could reintroduce volatility to equities and commodities.

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