UK grocery inflation held steady at 4.3% in the four weeks to March 22, Worldpanel by Numerator reported on Tuesday, signalling continued pricing pressure for shoppers. That rate provides an early read on March pricing ahead of the government's official consumer-price data scheduled for April 22.
The Worldpanel report highlighted differences across product categories. Prices rose most rapidly in markets such as unprocessed meat and coffee, while butter and sugar confectionery posted the sharpest declines.
Worldpanel also signalled that the first obvious impact on household costs from the Iran war, via higher energy prices, has been felt at petrol stations. Farmers have warned that food prices are likely to climb further from next month, beginning with tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers that are produced in heated greenhouses. They added that soaring fertiliser costs are expected to feed through into food prices over time.
Quantifying the effect on household budgets, Worldpanel said each additional 1 percentage point in the grocery inflation rate could add more than 50 pounds to the average household's annual grocery bill, which it equated to about $66 at the time of the report.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, summed up the situation: "With grocery inflation likely to increase and fuel costs rising sharply, the conditions that make shoppers feel vulnerable are only intensifying."
The report noted that Britons are already facing a series of bill increases in April across areas including council taxes, water bills, and contracts for mobile phone and broadband services.
Separate figures released on Tuesday by the British Retail Consortium showed that overall shop price inflation in March edged up to 1.2%.
On the sales front, Worldpanel said UK grocery sales increased 4.4% in the four-week period year-on-year. Looking at the 12 weeks to March 22, the market continued to evolve, with industry leader Tesco and number two Sainsbury's both gaining market share. Discounters and online players also showed differing rates of growth: Lidl GB remained the fastest growing bricks-and-mortar grocer, while Ocado led growth across all channels. By contrast, Asda continued to lose share over the period.
The Worldpanel data for market share and market sales change for the 12 weeks to March 22 is shown below:
| Retailer | Market share 2026 | Market share 2025 | Market sales change 12 weeks to March 22 (year-on-year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesco | 28.0 | 27.7 | 5.0 |
| Sainsbury's | 15.6 | 15.3 | 5.5 |
| Asda | 11.6 | 12.1 | -0.9 |
| Aldi | 10.6 | 10.8 | 2.3 |
| Morrisons | 8.3 | 8.4 | 2.3 |
| Lidl | 8.3 | 7.8 | 9.6 |
| Co-operative | 5.1 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Waitrose | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.8 |
| Iceland | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Ocado | 2.2 | 2.0 | 12.3 |
Source: Worldpanel by Numerator ($1 = 0.7583 pounds)
Note: The Worldpanel figures provide an early indicator for March grocery pricing and market trends ahead of the official UK consumer price release due April 22.