Stock Markets April 2, 2026

UK Equities Retreat as Hopes for Swift Middle East De-escalation Fade

Risk-off sentiment weighs on London market after renewed US rhetoric; energy names rally amid oil supply concerns

By Hana Yamamoto BP
UK Equities Retreat as Hopes for Swift Middle East De-escalation Fade
BP

London’s principal stock indexes ended a three-day winning streak on Thursday after US President Donald Trump signaled a tougher stance toward Iran, undercutting earlier hopes for a rapid ceasefire. The FTSE 100 slipped while midcaps fell more sharply, even as the energy sector jumped on concerns over possible sustained supply disruptions. Market pricing now factors in multiple Bank of England rate cuts this year and surveys show waning business confidence and rising plans to pass through higher energy costs.

Key Points

  • UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.2% and FTSE 250 declined 0.9% as investor risk appetite weakened after the US signalled tougher action on Iran.
  • Energy sector rose 3.6% after oil jumped more than 7%, with BP and Shell up 4.5% and 3.3% respectively.
  • Market pricing reflects more than two quarter-point Bank of England rate cuts by year-end; business confidence slid from +2.8 to -1.1 and firms plan faster price increases due to higher energy costs.

London stock benchmarks moved lower on Thursday, breaking a three-session run of gains as risk appetite cooled following comments from US President Donald Trump indicating a willingness to carry out stronger strikes on Iran. Earlier signals from the president had raised investor hopes for a rapid end to the conflict, but his subsequent remarks prompted a broad shift to safer assets.

By 1149 GMT the FTSE 100 had dipped 0.2%, while the FTSE 250 posted a larger decline of 0.9%. Despite the pullback, both indexes remained positioned to close the holiday-shortened week with gains.


Sector movers

  • Energy: The sector led gains, up 3.6%, after oil surged more than 7% in response to renewed worries about supply interruptions tied to the conflict. Major oil producers saw notable share-price appreciation.
  • Oil majors: BP and Shell were among the top performers on the benchmark, rising 4.5% and 3.3% respectively.
  • Precious metals miners: Miners were the weakest performers, falling 5.1% after gold retreated following the president's comments.

Macro and sentiment indicators

Market-implied expectations now include more than two quarter-point reductions in Bank of England policy rates by year-end, according to data compiled by LSEG. At the same time, a survey of accountants covering a 10-week period through March 16 showed a deterioration in British business confidence, slipping from +2.8 on the eve of the conflict to -1.1 by the survey's close.

In related data, a Bank of England survey indicated that British companies expect to accelerate price increases over the coming 12 months as they respond to a surge in energy costs linked to the Iran war.


Market calendar

Traders will face a shortened schedule with markets closed for Good Friday and Easter Monday.


Note on valuation tools: The article referenced a Fair Value calculator that uses a mix of 17 industry valuation models to assess stocks such as BP, and suggested it as a rapid method to gauge whether BP or other names appear undervalued.

Risks

  • Escalation in Iran-related hostilities could produce sustained oil supply disruptions, disproportionately affecting the energy sector and contributing to higher energy-driven inflation.
  • Declining business confidence may weigh on corporate investment and broader economic activity in the UK, impacting midcap and domestic-exposed sectors.
  • Market expectations of multiple Bank of England rate cuts introduce uncertainty for fixed-income and interest-rate-sensitive equities as policy trajectory evolves.

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