UBS has published its most recent list of global high-quality dividend stocks, selecting companies that its quantitative framework rates as unlikely to reduce their dividends. The bank combined model-driven screening with follow-up scrutiny from sector analysts to generate a cross-sector roster of names deemed comparatively resilient.
According to UBS analyst Amanda Belcaid, the initial screen targeted stocks that appear higher quality than their peers, pay a dividend and show a low modeled probability of cutting that payout. Candidates passing the quantitative filter were then examined by sector specialists to confirm the shortlist.
The final selection spans multiple sectors, including communication services, consumer discretionary, energy, financials, healthcare, industrials, technology, materials, real estate and utilities. UBS singled out ten representative stocks from the top of its list: Omnicom Group, Domino's Pizza, Exxon Mobil, Chiba Bank, UnitedHealth Group, Aena, ASE Technology Holding, Aluminum Corporation of China (H-share), Digital Realty Trust and DTE Energy.
Dividend yields on the highlighted names vary, with Domino's Pizza at the lower end at 2.3% and Aena at the higher end at 4.8%. Across regions and sectors, UBS modeled an overall 17.8% probability that companies could cut dividends.
Regionally, UBS sees the United States as the safest market for dividend durability, assigning a 6.2% probability of a dividend cut there. By contrast, emerging markets carry a higher modeled cut risk at 23.0%.
Sector-level vulnerability is most pronounced in energy, where UBS assigns a 26.3% chance of dividend reductions. The bank's outlook for dividend growth and declines also varies by geography and sector: Japan is forecast to lead dividend growth with a 12.8% increase, while energy stocks in Pacific ex-Japan are projected to face the steepest decline at -19.5%.
UBS additionally reports that, over the past quarter, high-yielding stocks outperformed low-yielding peers in every region, with Japan and the United States contributing most to that relative strength.
Methodological note - UBS combined quantitative screening with sector analyst review to identify names that both pay dividends and carry a low modeled probability of cutting them. This produced a diversified shortlist covering multiple sectors and regions.