UBS has downgraded Schaeffler to a sell rating from neutral, arguing that the stock’s recent ascent is driven more by optimistic expectations around humanoid robotics than by changes in the industrial supplier’s core operations. The announcement prompted shares to fall by more than 5% following the downgrade.
The brokerage set a refreshed 12-month price target of €8.30, an increase from its prior €6.20 target, but the new level still sits below Schaeffler’s closing price of €10.02 on Feb. 2.
UBS highlighted that the share price has climbed roughly 60% since October, a jump the firm attributes primarily to investor hopes tied to the company’s role in humanoid robots rather than to an improvement in underlying business metrics. "While the longterm opportunity is real, the market’s implied adoption scenarios for the ~€3bn implied market value are above our own estimates," the UBS analysts said.
In its analysis, UBS concluded that current market valuations appear to attach roughly €3 billion of value to Schaeffler’s humanoid robotics activities. By contrast, UBS’s own assessment places that contribution closer to €1.6 billion. To reach its fair value estimate, UBS now assigns €1.7 per share to the humanoid segment and values the company’s core business at €6.6 per share, producing a combined fair value of €8.3 per share.
The brokerage said the present share price implies sales and adoption trajectories for humanoids that are "too demanding for an early-stage opportunity with a high degree of uncertainty." UBS acknowledged Schaeffler’s strategic positioning in the sector, noting the company’s exposure to around 50% of a humanoid robot’s bill of materials, its early traction with 28 prototypes across 14 original equipment manufacturers, and the firm’s plan to deploy humanoids internally in its own factories.
Despite that positioning, UBS’s base-case scenario anticipates global humanoid demand of about 1 million units by 2035. Under those assumptions, Schaeffler would record roughly €600 million in humanoid-related sales in 2035. Discounted back to present value, UBS estimates that stream is worth approximately €220 million today — a figure it says is far lower than what market capitalization currently reflects.
"The market is effectively attributing ~€3bn to humanoids today," UBS added, noting that this valuation corresponds to roughly 15 times EV/sales when measured against the brokerage’s base-case sales assumptions.
UBS also pointed to limited near-term support from Schaeffler’s core automotive business. The firm said vehicle production-volume visibility remains weak and noted that Europe, which makes up about 45% of group revenue, is expected to experience a decline of around 1% in 2026. Additionally, UBS does not expect Schaeffler’s E-Mobility division to reach breakeven before 2028.
Putting these elements together, UBS concluded that the recent rally appears to be driven almost entirely by the humanoid growth opportunity and that, given sector conditions and the company’s 2028 execution plan, the current risk-reward profile is skewed to the downside at prevailing prices.
Summary
UBS downgraded Schaeffler to sell from neutral and raised its 12-month target to €8.30, which remains below the company’s recent closing price of €10.02. The brokerage said the market is overvaluing Schaeffler’s exposure to humanoid robotics, attributing about €3 billion to that segment versus UBS’s lower estimate. UBS now assigns €1.7 per share to humanoids and €6.6 per share to the core business, combining for an €8.3 fair value.
Key points
- UBS downgraded Schaeffler to sell from neutral and set a 12-month target of €8.30, below the recent closing price of €10.02.
- Shares have risen roughly 60% since October, a move UBS links primarily to investor expectations around humanoid robotics rather than improvements in core operations.
- UBS estimates market participants currently attribute about €3 billion to Schaeffler’s humanoid efforts, while UBS’s own valuation for that segment is closer to €1.6 billion.
Risks and uncertainties
- High uncertainty around humanoid adoption - UBS argues current market adoption assumptions are aggressive for an early-stage technology, creating valuation risk for investors interested in robotics exposure.
- Weak visibility in the core auto market - With Europe representing about 45% of revenue and expected to decline roughly 1% in 2026, automotive end-market weakness could constrain near-term revenue performance.
- E-Mobility breakeven timing - Schaeffler’s E-Mobility division is not expected to reach breakeven before 2028, which could weigh on profitability until then.