Futures tied to Canada’s main stock benchmark traded lower on Monday as market participants continued to process uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade measures and their potential ripple effects for cross-border commerce.
By 06:16 ET (11:16 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had fallen by 2 points, or 0.1%.
Markets entered the session coming off a strong finish last week for Canadian equities. On Friday the S&P/TSX composite index rose 0.7% to 33,817.51, eclipsing a record closing high set in the session before. For the week, the average climbed 2.25% as investor sentiment was lifted by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling and gains in sectors that carry substantial weight on the TSX.
The court decision found that President Donald Trump’s invocation of emergency economic powers to impose sweeping tariffs exceeded his authority, and that outcome helped underpin strength in financial and metal mining shares, which represent a meaningful portion of the TSX index.
The Canada-U.S. trade relationship remains central to investor analyses: roughly 70% of Canadian exports are sent to the United States. Despite that interdependence, the durability of the trading partnership has been called into question amid critical remarks by President Trump during his second term, and the recent judicial and executive actions on tariffs have further clouded near-term clarity.
U.S. futures slide amid tariff and geopolitical developments
U.S. stock index futures also retreated in early trading as markets absorbed the Supreme Court ruling and awaited corporate earnings that could provide direction for key technology sectors.
- At 06:32 ET, Dow Jones Futures fell 122 points, or 0.3%.
- S&P 500 Futures dropped 17 points, or 0.3%.
- Nasdaq 100 Futures slipped 101 points, or 0.4%.
Still, the main averages on Wall Street had advanced to close the prior week, a rally influenced by the Supreme Court’s decision and by investor relief that the U.S. did not move forward with military strikes against Iran.
Immediate tariff response from the White House
In the wake of the court ruling, President Trump said over the weekend he would raise a temporary universal tariff on imports to 15% from an initial 10%. He criticized the ruling as a "disgrace," and then used a provision of the 1974 Trade Act to enact 15% global tariffs for up to 150 days, citing the need to address what he termed "international payment problems."
The legal shift prompted commentary from market analysts. Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro, said: "The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs removes one legal channel but does not signal the end of the tariff regime. In our view, markets were already pricing in a restructuring of trade policy, specifically the removal of IEEPA tariffs and a shift toward a more formalised 15% framework. This ruling accelerates that transition rather than derailing it."
She added: "The near-term risk is uncertainty: shifting legal foundations could dampen activity temporarily. However, if the outcome is a more predictable tariff structure, equities may ultimately benefit."
Reports cited in market commentary indicated that several major countries, with which the Trump administration had secured trade accords in the previous year, were seeking renegotiation or clearer terms on the new levies. The European Commission, representing the European Union’s 27 member states in trade negotiations, urged that the U.S. honour an accord reached in 2025 and requested "full clarity" on how U.S. tariff policy will change following the decision.
Key domestic data and central bank commentary on investors' radar
Against this backdrop of trade-policy shifts and international pushback, market participants planned to monitor remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller in Washington. Waller's speech was expected to address the economic outlook; he was one of two policymakers who dissented when the Federal Reserve chose in January to keep interest rates in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
Economic releases scheduled later in the session included durable goods orders and factory orders, both of which can offer insight into manufacturing activity and business investment trends.
Nvidia earnings and the AI angle
Another focal point for markets this week is Nvidia, whose quarterly report is seen as a key barometer for AI-related demand. Nvidia is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday. Forecasts referenced in market coverage projected earnings per share of $1.52 on revenue of $65.56 billion, compared with EPS of $0.89 and revenue of $39.33 billion from the same quarter a year earlier.
Investors are looking to the company for guidance on the trajectory of the fast-growing AI industry. Notably, the piece of market commentary noted heightened uncertainty about the industry's outlook and potential ramifications for the broader technology landscape. Recent weeks had seen sharp selloffs in software and logistics stocks amid concerns over AI-related disruptions, with those losses spilling into wider market sectors.
Commodities: oil pares gains, gold sustains rise
Energy markets moderated on Monday after a strong advance the prior week. Brent futures fell 0.2% to $71.16 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 0.2% to $66.35 a barrel.
Both contracts had surged nearly 6% the previous week, driven by concerns over a possible U.S.-Iran conflict and an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories. Outlooks shifted as reports indicated a third round of nuclear talks between the two nations is expected on Thursday in Geneva, a development that could reduce the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East.
The commentary highlighted Iran’s role as a significant OPEC producer that holds some of the world’s largest proven crude reserves, underscoring why diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran is closely watched by oil market participants.
Precious metals remained bid: spot gold rose for a fourth straight session, extending gains from the prior week. At 04:45 ET (09:45 GMT), spot gold was quoted up 0.9% at $5,151.77 an ounce, while U.S. Gold Futures advanced 1.8% to $5,173.01/oz. The yellow metal had climbed more than 1% last week amid risk-averse positioning tied to geopolitical tensions with Iran.
What this means for markets and trade-sensitive sectors
The early-morning dip in TSX futures reflected a market still negotiating the contours of U.S. trade policy following both a judicial rebuke of emergency tariff authority and a rapid executive move to institute a temporary, universal tariff. Financials and metal miners had been beneficiaries of the prior session's optimism, but near-term risk is elevated as legal avenues for tariffs are reshaped and trading partners seek clarity on how agreements will be upheld or altered.
Investors will be watching corporate earnings this week, especially in technology where Nvidia’s report may offer fresh signals on demand for AI hardware and the sector’s growth profile. At the same time, commodity price movements and upcoming economic data releases will provide additional context for how trade-policy shifts could translate into real-economy outcomes.
In short, Monday's trading indicates markets are sensitive to both policy-level developments in Washington and to corporate and macroeconomic data that will help determine whether the recent moves translate into sustained market trends or short-lived volatility.