Stock Markets March 27, 2026

TSX Futures Slip as Trump's Iran Deadline Extension Delivers Limited Market Relief

Investor optimism muted despite White House delay to action on Strait of Hormuz; oil and yields push market dynamics

By Sofia Navarro
TSX Futures Slip as Trump's Iran Deadline Extension Delivers Limited Market Relief

Futures tied to Canada's principal stock index declined modestly on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump extended a White House deadline for potential strikes on Iran, a move that offered only limited comfort to investors. Equity futures in both Canada and the United States moved lower as risks tied to ongoing fighting in the Middle East, disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and rising energy prices continued to reshape market expectations for inflation and interest rates.

Key Points

  • S&P/TSX 60 futures were down 7 points, or 0.4%, by 08:25 ET (12:25 GMT), while the S&P/TSX composite closed down 1.5% at 31,887.52 on Thursday and is on track for a March decline exceeding 7%.
  • U.S. futures fell early Friday - Dow futures down 169 points (0.4%), S&P 500 futures down 27 points (0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 futures down 148 points (0.6%) - amid uncertainty over efforts to end the nearly month-old war in Iran.
  • Oil prices rose sharply - Brent May futures were up 2.5% at $110.77 a barrel and WTI futures rose 2.2% to $96.56 a barrel - amid an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and risks to Persian Gulf energy sites, contributing to higher inflation expectations and altered Fed rate outlooks.

Futures linked to Canada’s main stock market inched downward on Friday as traders absorbed U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to push out a White House deadline connected to potential military strikes on Iran, a development that provided only muted relief for investors.

By 08:25 ET (12:25 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had fallen by 7 points, or 0.4%. The broader S&P/TSX composite index had closed the prior session down 1.5% at 31,887.52, leaving the average on track for a monthly decline in excess of 7% for the month of March.


U.S. futures also moved lower early Friday. At 07:33 ET, the Dow futures contract was down 169 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures were lower by 27 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had dropped 148 points, or 0.6%. The main averages on Wall Street had fallen in the previous session amid continued uncertainty over reported efforts to end what the article describes as the nearly month-old war in Iran.

Combat operations across the Middle East have continued, the report notes, leaving in place what is described as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining the threat of air strikes on energy infrastructure in the region. The article reports that Israel and Iran exchanged strikes on Friday, and that the Pentagon has been building up resources in the Middle East. Some market participants, according to the text, believe this could precede a U.S. ground incursion into Iran.


Details on the U.S. deadline extension. Late on Thursday, Trump announced that a White House deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. attacks on energy facilities would be extended until April 6. In a post on Truth Social, the president said the extension was at the request of the Iranian government and that Tehran was engaged in "ongoing" talks with the United States that are "going very well." He added that media reports to the contrary were "erroneous."

The write-up recalls that Trump had issued an ultimatum to Iran the prior weekend, threatening strikes on the country’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz were not unblocked. He later said he would not carry out such strikes until Friday after what he characterized as "very strong" discussions with Iran. The article also states that Tehran has publicly denied that negotiations with Washington are taking place.

The piece notes that diplomats from the Group of 7 nations were scheduled to meet in France on Friday, with the White House’s appeals for international assistance to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz likely to be a central topic. According to the article, those calls for help have largely been rebuffed to date.

Markets were also expected to focus on the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March, which the article suggests could provide greater insight into how U.S. households expect to be affected by the fighting in the Middle East.


Energy markets and supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to tanker traffic, and the threat of additional strikes on energy installations in the Persian Gulf persisted, the article reports. That situation has caused a major disruption to supplies from one of the world’s largest energy-producing regions, depriving global markets of imports used across industries.

By 07:39 ET, the futures contract expiring in May for Brent crude was reported up 2.5% at $110.77 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures had advanced 2.2% to $96.56 a barrel. The account states that Brent was on pace for a decline over the preceding five-day period, although it had clawed back much of an earlier retreat that had been driven by hopes for progress in peace discussions. The contract was described as sitting well above pre-war levels, contributing to concerns about a potential jump in inflationary pressures.

The article links those price developments to a shift in market expectations for monetary policy. It says markets have all but erased prospects for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year and have even begun contemplating possible rate increases in coming months. The Federal Reserve, the piece notes, left rates unchanged at its meeting last week but highlighted the risk that the energy shock could accelerate inflation.


Fixed income and yields. Against that backdrop, benchmark U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since July on Friday. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes was reported at 4.46% by 07:04 ET, an increase of roughly 5 basis points from an earlier reference point. The article also notes that on Thursday the 10-year yield had risen by 9 basis points. It reminds readers that yields typically move inversely to bond prices.


Precious metals reaction. Gold prices pared some earlier gains on Friday as the dollar strengthened and markets weighed the prospects for talks to end the Iran conflict. Spot gold was last reported up 1.4% at $4,439.76 an ounce after having inched higher by approximately 2% during Asian trading. Gold futures were noted as advancing 1.3% to $4,467.70 an ounce.

Over the trailing one-week period, the article reports, spot gold remained on track for a loss of about 1.7%. The write-up says strength in the dollar has undermined gold’s appeal, and observers quoted in the text suggest bullion may have been affected by a surge to record peaks in January followed by a subsequent decline of roughly 20%. The piece reiterates that the sharp jump in oil prices, driven by supply disruptions from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has raised concerns about global inflation and in turn reinforced expectations that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer - a dynamic the article notes typically weighs on gold.


The market moves described in this report reflect a mix of geopolitical risk, commodity market stress and evolving expectations for monetary policy. Traders and investors were balancing a delayed U.S. military deadline, continuing combat in the Middle East and the knock-on effects for energy supplies, inflation expectations and interest-rate outlooks.

Risks

  • Continued fighting in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz pose ongoing downside risk to global energy supplies and markets, impacting energy producers and industries dependent on imports.
  • Rising oil prices are elevating inflationary pressures that could keep central banks from cutting interest rates this year and may prompt consideration of higher borrowing costs, which could affect interest-rate sensitive sectors such as real estate and fixed-income markets.
  • Geopolitical uncertainty and market reactions to potential military actions or diplomatic developments could increase volatility across equities, commodities and bond markets, complicating short-term trading and investment decisions in impacted sectors.

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