Futures connected to Canada’s commodity-sensitive benchmark fell on Thursday morning as traders reacted to heightened oil prices and a pullback in bullion amid limited signs of a swift diplomatic resolution to the conflict involving Iran.
By 08:23 ET (12:23 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract was down 18 points, roughly 0.9%. That weakness followed a strong showing for the broader S&P/TSX composite index a day earlier, when it rose 1.4% to its highest close since March 17, extending a short winning streak to three sessions.
U.S. futures and recent market context
Across the border, U.S. equity futures were also weaker on Thursday. At 08:36 ET (12:36 GMT), Dow futures traded about 407 points lower, or 0.9%; S&P 500 futures had slipped roughly 62 points, or 0.9%; and Nasdaq 100 futures had eased by about 270 points, or 1.1%.
Stocks on Wall Street had rallied in the prior session amid media reports suggesting a potential willingness by parties to engage in talks to end the nearly month-long conflict. Those reports said Tehran had privately indicated a readiness to hold discussions with Washington, while U.S. Vice President JD Vance was reported as possibly prepared to travel to Pakistan for negotiations as early as this weekend. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the U.S. and Israel might delay assassination attempts on Iran’s foreign minister or parliament speaker while communications continued.
Still, the communication coming from different actors remains mixed. Reports indicate the negotiating positions of the two sides are far apart on terms to halt hostilities, and U.S. military activity has not been reduced; the Pentagon has been moving to add more ground forces to the Middle East theater.
President Donald Trump added to the charged rhetoric in a social media post on Thursday morning, describing Iranian negotiators as "very different and 'strange,'" and saying Tehran was "begging" for a deal to end the conflict. He also reiterated White House assertions that Tehran’s military capability had been "obliterated" by joint U.S.-Israeli strikes and warned that Iran needed to "get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty!"
Oil climbs above $100 as supply concerns persist
Amid the flurry of geopolitical developments, energy markets tightened further. Brent crude futures for the May contract were last up 5.0% at $107.37 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose about 4.9% to $94.73 a barrel. The immediate market reaction pushed both benchmarks back toward and above psychologically sensitive price levels.
Market participants remain concerned that disruptions tied to the conflict could trigger an energy supply shock and re-accelerate inflationary pressures globally. Such a development would carry implications for central bank policy, potentially prompting monetary authorities to consider rate increases to counter faster price growth. The OECD has warned that a further surge in energy prices amid a prolonged conflict would likely accelerate price gains and act as a drag on economic growth.
Market comment in the article highlighted that the Strait of Hormuz continues to be, in effect, shut. That waterway, which handles a significant portion of the world’s oil and natural gas shipments, has been effectively closed for weeks because of the risk of Iranian attacks. Oil prices have eased from a peak close to $120 a barrel earlier this month but remain well above the levels seen before the conflict began in late February.
Gold softens as dollar and yields firm
Gold, which had rebounded earlier in the week to trade above $4,500 an ounce, weakened on Thursday. Spot gold dropped about 1.5% to $4,436.21 an ounce, while gold futures fell roughly 2.7% to $4,464.20 an ounce. The decline came as the U.S. dollar strengthened and global government bond yields moved higher, reducing some of bullion’s safe-haven appeal in the short term.
American Hartford Gold President Max Baecker was quoted noting the metal is trading in a defined range and that a decisive move through the mid-$4,500s would be required to change the market tone. Until that threshold is cleared and held, he said, rallies may encounter resistance and become selling opportunities.
Diplomatic signals remain unclear; military actions continue
Reports indicate Iran is examining a 15-point peace proposal from the U.S., while White House officials have warned further air strikes will be used if Tehran does not reach a deal. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt was cited as saying that the president "does not bluff and [...] is prepared to unleash hell," although other reporting suggested the president has privately told aides he wants the conflict to end quickly.
Analysts at Vital Knowledge pointed out that the administration has publicly scheduled a presidential trip to China for May 14-15, which could signal a U.S. expectation that the conflict will be resolved by then. The article noted that such calendar items are being read as potential markers for a near-term conclusion to hostilities.
At the same time, Israel announced a targeted strike it says killed Alireza Tangsiri, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz was cited as saying Tangsiri had been "directly responsible" for planting mines that helped block the Strait of Hormuz.
Market implications and closing observations
The combination of rising oil prices, a firmer dollar and higher bond yields created intra-day pressure on commodity-sensitive equity futures, including those tied to the S&P/TSX 60. While the broader S&P/TSX composite had recorded a notable advance in the prior session, the early futures tone suggested investors were digesting both the prospect of talks and the continued potential for escalation.
Given the mixed set of signals - diplomatic outreach and private offers on one hand, and military movements and tough rhetoric on the other - markets remain sensitive to daily developments. Commodities, particularly oil and gold, and sectors linked to energy and interest-rate-sensitive assets, appear most directly affected by the unfolding events.
Investors will likely continue to parse newsflow closely for any clearer indication that substantive, reciprocal concessions are being made toward a ceasefire or that the conflict will widen, and position portfolios accordingly.