Summary: Canada’s principal equity gauge looks set to open markedly down after overnight developments in Washington heightened fears of a prolonged Middle East confrontation. S&P/TSX 60 Futures were down materially early Thursday, erasing gains from the previous session. Broader risk assets weakened, oil prices jumped, and safe-haven metals snapped recent rallies as market participants reassessed the outlook.
TSX Futures and market direction
S&P/TSX 60 Futures fell by 25.6 points, or 1.34%, as of 08:10 ET on Thursday, pointing to a reversal of Wednesday’s gains that had been supported by hopes of an imminent ceasefire. The S&P/TSX Composite had advanced 0.58% the prior session on optimism that hostilities were nearing an end, but sentiment deteriorated after new remarks from the White House.
U.S. stock futures slide
Across the border, Wall Street futures indicated a pronounced sell-off ahead of the open. As of 8:15 ET, Dow Jones Futures were down 670 points, or 1.43%, S&P 500 Futures had fallen 1.65%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures were lower by 2.07%. The declines followed a late-evening address from U.S. President Donald Trump in which he said the military would intensify its campaign over the next two to three weeks.
In his remarks, the president reiterated that Washington would not lead efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and urged oil-dependent nations to secure the passage themselves. Those comments appeared to amplify concerns about potential disruptions to maritime oil flows.
Energy markets react - oil surges
Oil prices climbed sharply on Thursday amid rising concern that military escalation could further disrupt supply. Brent Oil Futures rose to $109.07 a barrel, while Crude Oil WTI Futures surged 10.06% and crossed the $110 mark. The price jump reflected heightened anxiety over the Strait of Hormuz - a critical shipping route for roughly 20% of global oil consumption - which the article states remains effectively blocked.
President Trump warned that, should a deal not be reached, the United States would target Iran’s electricity infrastructure "simultaneously" and "extremely hard." These comments appeared to intensify worries about potential escalation and its consequences for energy flows.
Precious metals and commodities
Precious metals gave back earlier gains as markets rebalanced to the evolving geopolitical picture. XAU/USD fell 3.11% to $4,612.27 per ounce, retreating from an earlier session high of $4,800.58. Silver Futures plunged 6.99% to $70.79 per ounce, and Platinum Futures declined 3.45% to $1,922. These moves occurred alongside broad volatility across the commodities complex as investors factored in the prospect of intensified U.S. military action.
Outlook
Thursday’s price action in equities, oil, and precious metals reflected an abrupt shift in market sentiment after the White House address. The immediate implication is a heightened period of market volatility until clarity emerges on whether military operations will escalate further and whether shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened.
Key points
- S&P/TSX 60 Futures were down 25.6 points, or 1.34%, as of 08:10 ET, reversing prior session gains.
- U.S. futures pointed to a sharp sell-off: Dow Jones Futures fell 670 points (1.43%) as of 8:15 ET; S&P 500 Futures dropped 1.65%; Nasdaq 100 Futures slid 2.07%.
- Energy and commodity markets saw large moves - Brent rose to $109.07 a barrel and WTI jumped over 10.06% to cross $110, while gold, silver, and platinum retreated from recent highs.
Risks and uncertainties
- Escalation of military operations could further disrupt oil supply and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - a significant risk to the energy sector and markets sensitive to oil-price shocks.
- Extended market volatility driven by geopolitical developments may pressure equities, particularly in sectors exposed to higher fuel costs or international operations.
- Rapid moves in commodities and precious metals introduce uncertainty for portfolios and companies with commodity-linked cash flows or working-capital exposure.