Futures linked to Canada’s main stock benchmark were largely flat on Monday as investors balanced tentative reports of mediated ceasefire discussions with continuing hostilities in the Middle East.
By 07:36 ET (11:36 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract showed no material change in value.
Traders noted that overall futures volumes were relatively light. A number of large stock exchanges across Europe and Asia were closed for a holiday, reducing cross-border activity and leaving North American futures to trade with thinner participation.
U.S. futures mixed
U.S. contracts painted a mixed picture early in the session. At 07:08 ET, Dow futures were lower by 55 points, or roughly 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were higher by 7 points, or about 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures had climbed 84 points, or 0.4%.
Diplomatic reports and the Strait of Hormuz
Reports circulated suggesting both the U.S. and Iran have been presented with a framework intended to halt hostilities, though Tehran has declined any immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to accounts from a person described as familiar with the proposals.
Those accounts indicate the plan - reportedly brokered by Pakistan after overnight contacts involving U.S. and Iranian officials - envisages an immediate ceasefire, followed by negotiations on a broader settlement to be wrapped up within 15 to 20 days.
Additional reports indicated discussions of a possible two-phase arrangement that could include a 45-day ceasefire as an initial phase, with the potential to evolve into a permanent end to the conflict. These reports referenced U.S., Israeli and regional sources.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump had issued a public threat to target Iranian power plants if Tehran did not act to unblock the Strait of Hormuz by a specified deadline. He had earlier set a Monday deadline for Iran to reach an agreement and reopen the vital waterway, and later indicated further consequences if the strait remained closed by Tuesday evening.
Oil retreats after early gains
Front-month Brent crude, the international benchmark, was last down 1.0% at $107.93 a barrel after briefly trading above $110 a barrel earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell about 1.5% to $109.88.
Although oil eased from intra-session highs, prices remain significantly higher than levels recorded before the conflict began. That elevation in energy costs is adding upward pressure to inflation in multiple countries and raising the prospect the higher price level could weigh on global growth.
Government bond yields have been moving higher as markets price in the possibility that central banks may need to raise interest rates in response to renewed price pressures. Market participants will be watching upcoming consumer price data for March, due later in the week, for clearer evidence of how the conflict is feeding into inflation.
Gold modestly firmer
Gold traded marginally higher after an initial dip amid the tentative ceasefire reports. Spot gold last changed hands up 0.1% at $4,678.32 per ounce, while gold futures added about 0.5% to $4,704.01/oz. The metal had gained 4% in the previous week.
Market observers noted that higher oil prices are one factor contributing to inflationary concerns, which in turn limit gold's upside. With investors increasingly anticipating that U.S. interest rates may stay elevated for longer, the non-yielding yellow metal can be disadvantaged in a higher-rate environment.
In sum, subdued Canadian futures trading on Monday reflected a combination of thin holiday liquidity, mixed signals from U.S. contracts, and cautious positioning as markets absorbed evolving reports about a potential ceasefire and weighed the implications for energy markets, inflation and monetary policy.