Some of President Donald Trump’s most consequential policy moves were foreshadowed by tightly timed market bets that have prompted questions from analysts and lawmakers about whether information moved ahead of public disclosure.
The episodes span commodity futures, prediction markets and U.S. equity options. Data reviewed from exchanges, analytics firms and trading platforms show large volumes changing hands within minutes - and in some cases within a single minute - immediately prior to major announcements. Below are the episodes and the trade flows tied to them.
March 23, 2026 - Iran attack pause and oil-market activity
Shortly before President Trump announced a five-day delay to attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, an unidentified trader or group of traders placed roughly $500 million of bets on Brent and WTI crude futures within a one-minute span, according to exchange data and calculations. LSEG data show that 5,100 lots changed hands between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT, with selling dominating the volume.
When the president’s social media post announcing the pause was published at 11:05 GMT, market turnover spiked further: more than 13,000 lots - the equivalent of 13 million barrels - traded in a single 60-second interval. Prices moved sharply lower, with Brent falling to $99 per barrel from $112 and WTI declining to $86 per barrel from $99, a roughly 15% drop overall following the announcement.
February 28, 2026 - Iran strikes and prediction-market wagers
Wagers on prediction platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi received attention in the run-up to the raids that resulted in the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A Reuters review of Polymarket at the time found about $529 million was wagered across contracts tied to the timing of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, and roughly $150 million was staked on Khamenei’s removal as supreme leader.
Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six accounts that, together, recorded $1.2 million in profit from Polymarket bets funded in the hours immediately before the raids on February 28. U.S. Representative Mike Levin of California singled out one Polymarket bet placed shortly prior to the strikes.
Market behavior in related asset classes also drew attention. Despite hotter-than-expected inflation data that would typically prompt selling of long-dated U.S. Treasuries, traders moved into Treasuries on February 27, pushing yields on the benchmark 10-year note below 4%. Analysts noted that a marked move into a safe-haven asset such as Treasuries would usually be associated with a negative macro event or a strong expectation that one was imminent. On that same day, U.S. airline shares sold off as oil prices rose; the Dow Jones U.S. Airlines Index slipped 5.13%.
January 3, 2026 - Capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro
On Polymarket, an unknown trader realized a profit of about $410,000 after placing wagers on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro ahead of a weekend raid on his compound in Caracas by U.S. special forces. The trader’s account had built positions in contracts implying long odds for Maduro’s removal; those positions were worth roughly $34,000 prior to the operation and rose sharply in value once news of the U.S. military action emerged on January 3.
April 9, 2025 - Tariff pause and options activity
Unidentified options traders placed sizable bets on a U.S. stock-market rebound in the minutes before President Trump posted a pause on tariffs, an announcement that triggered a large domestic equity rally. The Truth Social post pausing tariffs was published at 1:18 p.m. ET on April 9, and the S&P 500 jumped 9.5% on the news.
Market data show a spike in trading of certain SPY call options before the post. Around 1:00 p.m. ET, some 5,105 SPY call options traded for an average price of $4.20, a position that would have cost about $2.14 million and rose on paper to roughly $21.44 million when stocks rallied. Additional SPY calls betting on the ETF rising above $509 traded around 1:10 p.m. ET; those contracts increased in value to roughly $10 million by the close from a starting notional of about $624,000.
Reuters reported it could not determine whether the observed call trades were entered by one trader or multiple traders, nor whether positions were closed for realized gains.
Official response and context
White House spokesman Kush Desai reiterated that government ethics rules bar federal employees from profiting from nonpublic information. In an emailed statement he said: "Any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible."
Observers and lawmakers have flagged the timing and concentration of these trades as worthy of scrutiny. The available trade records and platform data document the flows and profits but do not, in themselves, establish the source of any information that may have influenced trading decisions.
What the records show - and do not show
The incidents documented involve large, concentrated positions placed shortly before major policy or military announcements. The data include high-frequency exchange records, volumes on futures markets, totals wagered on prediction-market platforms, and trades in listed options. Where analysis has identified accounts and profits, those findings describe the gains realized or the paper profits that followed the announcements.
However, the records as presented do not offer definitive proof of insider information or improper coordination, and questions about the origin of trading signals remain unresolved in the public data.