Tesla is projected to report lower vehicle deliveries for the January-March quarter compared with the December quarter, reflecting uneven demand and stronger competitive pressure in key overseas markets. The company is expected to disclose delivery figures before the markets open on Thursday.
Analysts polled by Visible Alpha put the delivery estimate at about 368,900 vehicles for the first quarter. That projection represents a sequential decline of 11.8% from the December quarter, while still marking a 9.6% increase versus the same period a year earlier, when a significant backlash against Elon Musk's far-right political rhetoric weighed on sales.
The mean of 23 estimates compiled by Tesla stands at 365,645 units, according to the same polling.
Industry headwinds cited by analysts include intensifying competition in Europe and China, which are cooling demand, and the scheduled expiration in September of a $7,500 federal tax credit in the U.S. for electric-vehicle purchases. Those factors are cited as weighing on near-term demand for EVs.
Although many Wall Street forecasts still indicate modest growth for Tesla this year, sentiment among analysts has shifted in recent months and some now expect a decline rather than growth.
Visible Alpha data show analysts are forecasting total deliveries of 1.7 million vehicles for Tesla in the current year, with projections of 1.84 million units in 2027.
Beyond its core electric-vehicle business, Tesla is increasingly placing strategic emphasis on other areas of activity. The company is allocating resources and attention to solar energy, humanoid robots and the development of autonomous robotaxis as additional potential pillars for its business.
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