Stock Markets April 1, 2026

Tesla Q1 Deliveries Seen Falling From December Quarter as EV Demand Cools

Analysts expect a sequential drop in January-March shipments amid rising competition and changes to U.S. tax incentives

By Maya Rios TSLA
Tesla Q1 Deliveries Seen Falling From December Quarter as EV Demand Cools
TSLA

Tesla is forecast to report a sequential decline in first-quarter vehicle deliveries versus the December quarter, driven by softer demand and tougher competition in Europe and China. Visible Alpha polling places Q1 deliveries near 368,900 units, down about 11.8% sequentially but up about 9.6% year-on-year. Market sentiment has cooled recently even as some analysts still expect modest growth for the year.

Key Points

  • Visible Alpha poll puts Tesla Q1 deliveries at about 368,900 vehicles, an 11.8% sequential decline but 9.6% year-on-year increase.
  • Competition in Europe and China and the September expiration of a $7,500 federal EV tax credit in the U.S. are weighing on demand for Tesla vehicles.
  • Analysts still forecast modest growth for the year with deliveries of about 1.7 million in the current year and 1.84 million in 2027; Tesla is also expanding focus into solar energy, humanoid robots and autonomous robotaxis.

Tesla is projected to report lower vehicle deliveries for the January-March quarter compared with the December quarter, reflecting uneven demand and stronger competitive pressure in key overseas markets. The company is expected to disclose delivery figures before the markets open on Thursday.

Analysts polled by Visible Alpha put the delivery estimate at about 368,900 vehicles for the first quarter. That projection represents a sequential decline of 11.8% from the December quarter, while still marking a 9.6% increase versus the same period a year earlier, when a significant backlash against Elon Musk's far-right political rhetoric weighed on sales.

The mean of 23 estimates compiled by Tesla stands at 365,645 units, according to the same polling.

Industry headwinds cited by analysts include intensifying competition in Europe and China, which are cooling demand, and the scheduled expiration in September of a $7,500 federal tax credit in the U.S. for electric-vehicle purchases. Those factors are cited as weighing on near-term demand for EVs.

Although many Wall Street forecasts still indicate modest growth for Tesla this year, sentiment among analysts has shifted in recent months and some now expect a decline rather than growth.

Visible Alpha data show analysts are forecasting total deliveries of 1.7 million vehicles for Tesla in the current year, with projections of 1.84 million units in 2027.

Beyond its core electric-vehicle business, Tesla is increasingly placing strategic emphasis on other areas of activity. The company is allocating resources and attention to solar energy, humanoid robots and the development of autonomous robotaxis as additional potential pillars for its business.


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Risks

  • Intensifying competition in Europe and China could further pressure demand and deliveries - impacts primarily in the automotive and EV sectors.
  • The scheduled expiration of a $7,500 federal tax credit in the U.S. in September could reduce consumer incentive to buy EVs - relevant to automotive and clean-energy markets.
  • A shift in analyst sentiment toward expecting declines rather than growth introduces uncertainty in market expectations and investor outlook - affecting equities and related capital markets.

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