Bank of America (BofA) has modelled the potential earnings impact of a firmer euro and finds that the 2026 earnings per share (EPS) for the STOXX Europe 600 would decline by 4.5% if EUR/USD holds around 1.19. The bank’s quant work highlights that the currency move would not affect all sectors equally.
According to BofA quant strategist Paulina Strzelinska, a weaker dollar relative to the euro tends to lift Energy and Utilities the most. By contrast, the Construction and Materials and Autos and Parts sectors are modelled to suffer the largest negative effects on earnings if the euro strengthens.
Winners at the company level
BofA’s stock screen surfaces a set of firms that have historically performed better when the euro is stronger versus the dollar. The list includes Siemens Energy, KION Group, Enel, Fresenius, Infineon, Adecco, Signify and Anheuser-Busch InBev. Several of these names show double-digit percentage uplifts to 2026 EPS under the stronger-euro scenario the bank modelled.
Travel and industrial exposure also appear among potential beneficiaries. TUI is singled out for a particularly large modelled EPS boost. The screens also identify companies such as FLSmidth, Siemens and Deutsche Post as having positive currency leverage tied to their North American sales and asset footprints, which can translate into upside when the euro strengthens against the dollar.
Potential laggards
On the flip side, BofA’s laggard screen highlights companies that tend to underperform when the euro gains. Healthcare-focused names such as Argenx, Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca and Roche are among those flagged, alongside global consumer and industrial groups including Bunzl, Compass Group, Diageo and Wolters Kluwer. These firms would face earnings pressure in the stronger-euro scenario the bank modelled.
Implications
The bank’s analysis underscores that currency moves can produce material distributional effects across sectors and individual companies. Energy and Utilities are modelled to be the primary gainers under a stronger euro, while Construction, Materials and Autos and Parts are modelled to be the most exposed to earnings downside. At the stock level, the BofA screens identify specific names with historical sensitivity to euro strength that could see double-digit EPS improvements or notable pressure depending on their exposure.
Where the euro-dollar exchange rate settles will be a key determinant of how broadly the earnings impact is felt across the STOXX Europe 600 and among the individual companies flagged by the bank’s models.