Data provider Kpler is flagging a tightening in the middle distillates market after observing a pronounced drop in product tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The decline has occurred in both westbound and eastbound movements, compounding concerns about deliveries of refined products, particularly jet fuel.
Loick Buisson, an analyst at Kpler, said recent strikes on tankers have amplified security worries and are discouraging vessels from transiting the chokepoint. Buisson indicated that the reduced willingness to use the route is behind the observed fall in tanker activity.
According to Kpler's data, Europe depends on the Middle East for 45% of its jet fuel requirements, while the region sources about 25% of its gasoil and diesel from the same suppliers. Kpler's analysis highlights that jet fuel is not only a large portion of that Middle East supply, but also presents additional replacement challenges because regional specifications and standards for jet fuel vary, making direct substitution more difficult.
Buisson told Kpler's analysts that the current pattern of lower transit appears likely to persist. That ongoing disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz is what underpins the warning that the middle distillates market faces pressure, with jet fuel singled out as especially vulnerable.
The Kpler assessment focuses on physical movements and regional supply dependencies rather than on market prices or secondary effects. It describes a situation in which security-related incidents have a direct bearing on shipping behavior through a key maritime chokepoint, and where Europe's significant reliance on Middle East jet fuel supplies creates a particular exposure.
Implications
- Logistics and shipping patterns are being affected by elevated security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Aviation fuel availability for Europe is notably exposed due to the region's 45% reliance on Middle East jet fuel and the difficulty of replacing it because of differing standards.
- The situation is described by Kpler as likely to continue, sustaining the strain on middle distillates flows.