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Stock Markets January 30, 2026

Starbucks Sets 2028 Financial Targets as Analysts Call Goals Achievable

Bernstein and Morgan Stanley praise clarity of strategy but note execution and cost details remain critical

By Derek Hwang SBUX
Starbucks Sets 2028 Financial Targets as Analysts Call Goals Achievable
SBUX

Starbucks' 2026 investor day presented a roadmap toward fiscal 2028 objectives that analysts at Bernstein and Morgan Stanley judged credible and, in Bernstein's words, largely beatable. The company outlined a fiscal 2028 EPS range of $3.35 to $4, a $2 billion gross savings target and initiatives aimed at lifting customer checks through food and protein platform expansion, store reinvestment and digital efforts. Analysts highlighted the potential upside if the firm consistently hits the comp target and realizes the planned savings, while also flagging that cost details and execution risks remain unresolved.

Key Points

  • Bernstein described Starbucks' fiscal 2028 EPS range of $3.35 to $4 as "largely beatable," contingent on consistent 3% comps and realization of $2 billion gross savings.
  • Bernstein identified below-inflation pricing and limited mix benefits in guidance, and cited food attachment plus protein platform expansion as potential drivers to lift checks by 6% to 9%.
  • Morgan Stanley said the investor day addressed diverse investor views, noting targets generally bracket the firm's estimates and that nearly 100 projects are linked to the $2 billion gross savings plan, though cost specifics remain incomplete.

Starbucks' 2026 investor day laid out a set of long-range financial targets and operational initiatives that drew constructive reviews from at least two major equity research teams. Analysts at Bernstein and Morgan Stanley described the presentation as a clear strategic plan accompanied by measurable goals and early indications of operational momentum.

Guidance and the 'beatable' algorithm

Bernstein singled out the company's fiscal 2028 earnings-per-share (EPS) range of $3.35 to $4, calling the long-term algorithm "largely beatable." Analyst Danilo Gargiulo noted that realizing the high end of the range would depend on the company consistently achieving 3% comparable-store sales growth and fully capturing the $2 billion in gross savings the company outlined. Bernstein described those two conditions - comp growth and delivery on the savings plan - as "easily" attainable given Starbucks' plans around store reinvention, product innovation and digital engagement.

Revenue mix and check growth drivers

Bernstein also observed that the guidance assumes below-inflation pricing and only limited mix benefits, which the firm argued strengthens the case for potential upside. The analyst house pointed specifically to food attachment and expansion of Starbucks' protein platform as levers that could increase average checks by an estimated 6% to 9% over the coming years.

Morgan Stanley perspective

Morgan Stanley characterized the investor event as providing "something for both camps," indicating the financial targets generally bracket that firm's own estimates. Analyst Brian Harbour emphasized Starbucks' explicit aim to reassert itself as consumers' "third place," supported by updates to its rewards program, new platform launches and renewed capital allocation toward stores.

On cost savings, Morgan Stanley noted that although management flagged a $2 billion gross savings goal, specifics were limited. The firm referenced "almost 100 projects" tied to the savings plan, but stressed the broader cost picture "still needs to be filled in."

Analyst ratings

Following the investor day, Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating on SBUX, while Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight recommendation.

Note: The company-provided targets, analyst commentary and ratings referenced here are as presented at the investor event and in subsequent analyst notes.

Risks

  • Failure to consistently achieve 3% comparable-store sales growth would impede reaching the high end of the fiscal 2028 EPS range - impacts retail and consumer discretionary sectors.
  • Inability to realize all elements of the $2 billion gross savings program, particularly given limited public cost details, creates execution risk for margin improvement - impacts corporate cost structure and investor returns.
  • Projected check increases from food attachment and the protein platform (estimated at 6% to 9%) may not materialize as anticipated, affecting revenue and top-line performance - impacts restaurant and foodservice segments.

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