Overview
Shell said Monday that global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to rise from 422 million tonnes per annum in 2025 to between 610 million tonnes per annum and 780 million tonnes per annum by 2050. The company described that span as an increase of roughly 45% to 85% over the 25-year period.
Supply outlook and investment
According to Shell, meeting demand at the lower end of that 2050 forecast range will still require further investment in supply during the 2030s and 2040s. The company highlighted that its existing LNG plants together with new developments are positioned competitively - sitting in the bottom half of the industry's cost curve - but emphasized that additional capacity and investment will be needed across the coming decades to align supply with projected demand.
Regional drivers
Shell said that growth in LNG demand through to 2040 will be concentrated in Asia, which accounts for 70% of the projected increase to that year. The company presented Asia as the primary source of incremental demand through the 2040 horizon, underlining regional importance in the overall global demand picture.
Role of LNG in energy mix
The company said LNG currently makes up 14% of global natural gas supply - an amount equivalent to just over 3% of total primary energy supply. Shell expects LNG's share of primary energy to rise to over 4% by 2040 and to remain around that level in 2050.
Implications for markets
Shell's projections outline a materially larger LNG market by mid-century, with a substantial portion of near-term demand growth originating in Asia and with an identified need for further supply-side investment in the 2030s and 2040s to meet projected volumes.