Wolfe Research has identified semiconductors as the single most important component behind projected earnings growth for the S&P 500, a finding that stands out amid broader market unease tied to geopolitical developments and rising energy prices.
Analyst Chris Senyek noted that, despite widespread bearishness in markets - interrupted only by occasional sharp rallies tied to headlines - S&P 500 earnings have held up. He wrote that 2026E Operating EPS revisions are up approximately 3% year-to-date.
Technology companies have been the primary force supporting that resilience. Wolfe Research forecasts that the technology sector will account for more than half of the S&P 500's year-over-year earnings growth in 2026. Within technology, the semiconductor group is singled out as especially influential.
Senyek estimates semiconductors will contribute about 39% of the index's total year-over-year earnings growth, and he specifically cites Micron and NVIDIA as the main drivers of that contribution. The analyst added: "We believe Semis have cemented themselves as the most important group for the S&P 500 as they're driving outsized contributions to earnings growth and revisions year-to-date."
Company results cited by Wolfe Research underline the group’s current influence. Micron reported second-quarter earnings of $12.20 per share on March 18, beating the analyst estimate of $8.79 by $3.41. NVIDIA’s most recent quarterly report was in late February, when the company posted fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.62, $0.10 better than the analyst estimate of $1.52. NVIDIA’s next earnings release is scheduled for May.
At the same time, Senyek flagged that market sentiment has been burdened by concerns over a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and persistently higher energy prices, factors that have contributed to a more cautious investor backdrop even as earnings revisions have shown improvement.
Summary
Wolfe Research finds semiconductors to be the largest single contributor to expected S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026, with semis responsible for roughly 39% of year-over-year gains and technology overall supplying more than half. Micron and NVIDIA are identified as primary drivers. The research notes that this earnings strength is occurring despite market worries about an extended Middle East conflict and elevated energy costs, and with 2026 operating EPS revisions up about 3% year-to-date.