Stock Markets January 26, 2026

Ryanair Lifts Fare Growth Forecast, Sees Full-Year Profit Around One-Third Higher

Airline raises average fare outlook after stronger-than-expected early 2026 bookings and issues cautious full-year profit guidance

By Priya Menon
Ryanair Lifts Fare Growth Forecast, Sees Full-Year Profit Around One-Third Higher

Ryanair said it now expects average fares for the financial year ending March 31 to exceed its prior +7% guidance by 1 to 2 percentage points, citing fares in the first quarter of 2026 that are running ahead of last year. The carrier is guiding pre-exceptional after-tax profit of 2.13-2.23 billion euros, up from 1.61 billion euros a year earlier, and faces an exceptional 256 million euro fine from the Italian competition authority that it intends to appeal.

Key Points

  • Ryanair says average fares for the year ending March 31 will exceed prior guidance of +7% by 1 or 2 percentage points, citing fares in the first three months of 2026 that are ahead of the prior year.
  • The airline is 'cautiously guiding' pre-exceptional after-tax profit of 2.13 billion euros to 2.23 billion euros, versus 1.61 billion euros last year.
  • An exceptional 256 million euro fine from the Italian competition authority, announced in December, is expected to be appealed and the airline stated confidence it will be overturned.

Ryanair said on Monday it has raised its forecast for average fare growth for the financial year ending March 31, driven by stronger booking trends in the early months of 2026. The Irish carrier, the largest in Europe by passenger numbers, said that fares in the first three months of 2026 were "trending ahead of prior year," leading it to upgrade its guidance.

In November the airline had guided for annual average fare growth of 7%. It now expects that full-year fares will exceed that +7% figure by 1 or 2 percentage points, based on the stronger start to the year. Ryanair noted that while the fourth quarter does not benefit from Easter timing, current fare trends still point to outperformance versus the prior year.

As a result of the improved fare outlook, the airline said it is "cautiously guiding" pre-exceptional after-tax profit in a range of 2.13 billion euros to 2.23 billion euros. That compares with 1.61 billion euros of after-tax profit in the previous year.

Ryanair also disclosed an exceptional charge tied to a 256 million euro fine imposed by the Italian competition authority in December. The airline said it is confident that the fine will be overturned on appeal.

The company provided the euro-dollar conversion rate included in its statement: $1 = 0.8429 euros.


This update reflects stronger-than-expected demand in the early part of the calendar year, which the carrier says has translated into higher average fares. Management has incorporated those trends into its full-year fare projection and profit guidance while flagging the exceptional charge as a separate matter subject to appeal.

The guidance range for pre-exceptional after-tax profit and the revised fare outlook are the central takeaways for investors and industry observers assessing Ryanair's near-term financial performance.

Risks

  • The existence of a 256 million euro exceptional charge from the Italian competition authority creates legal and financial uncertainty until any appeal is resolved - impacts airline financials and legal risk exposure.
  • Fourth-quarter results do not benefit from Easter timing, which could temper short-term revenue comparisons despite fares trending ahead - impacts seasonal demand assessment in the airline sector.
  • The guidance is described as 'cautious,' indicating possible sensitivity to booking trends and fare momentum for the remainder of the financial year - impacts revenue and profit visibility for investors.

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