RBC Capital Markets has flagged several large U.S. banks as approaching an inflection point heading into 2026, driven by what the firm describes as improving operating leverage, lighter regulatory headwinds, and enhanced potential for capital returns. According to the note, the combination of scale, diversified income sources, and efficiency gains is expected to support earnings resilience even as macro uncertainty persists.
Bank-by-bank highlights
U.S. Bancorp
RBC categorizes U.S. Bancorp as a high-quality compounder that is shifting from a defensive stance toward growth. Management is prioritizing long-term investments intended to allow revenue to expand at a faster clip than expenses. That strategy is supported by a balanced revenue mix between net interest income and fee-based businesses. The bank’s capital return program - with a targeted payout ratio in the 60-80% range - and consistently strong asset quality contribute to RBC’s assessment of a "best-in-class" profile. Analysts expect operating leverage at the franchise to continue improving.
Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo’s outlook in the RBC write-up centers on regulatory normalization and further efficiency gains. The removal of the Federal Reserve’s asset cap is identified as a structural turning point that should enable renewed balance-sheet expansion. In addition, ongoing cost-reduction efforts have materially improved the bank’s efficiency ratios. With robust capital positions, Wells Fargo has flexibility to pursue buybacks, and its diversified business segments are viewed as supportive of stable earnings as the franchise re-enters a growth phase.
JPMorgan Chase
RBC highlights JPMorgan for the scale and diversity of its businesses across consumer, commercial, and investment banking. The firm points to industry-leading execution reflected in strong return metrics and consistent profitability. A wide revenue base and strong capital generation are cited as positioning JPMorgan to outperform peers across both stable and more volatile macro environments.
Bank of America
Bank of America is presented as a franchise with exposure to interest-rate dynamics through its sizable deposit base and sensitivity to net interest income. Efficiency gains and disciplined cost control are noted as supporting margin expansion. Steady loan growth and ongoing capital returns are seen as enhancing shareholder value, though RBC notes that earnings remain somewhat tied to macro conditions given those rate sensitivities.
Citigroup
Citigroup is framed as a restructuring story where upside depends on execution. Ongoing strategic simplification and targeted efficiency initiatives are intended to lift returns and narrow the valuation gap with peers. While current profitability trails the leading banks, RBC indicates that improvement in cost discipline and portfolio optimization could lead to a meaningful re-rating if planned targets are met.
Across the group, RBC emphasizes common themes: operating leverage should improve as revenue growth outpaces expense growth at certain franchises, regulatory relief for some institutions provides room for balance-sheet expansion, and robust capital positions support the potential for enhanced buybacks or dividend programs. The firm cautions that these dynamics are unfolding within a broader macro environment that remains uncertain.
Bottom line
RBC’s analysis underscores the advantages of scale, diversified revenue mixes, and efficiency improvements for large U.S. banks as they enter a prospective inflection period before 2026. While the report highlights pathways to stronger capital returns and improved operating leverage, it situates these prospects against the backdrop of ongoing macro uncertainty.