Market snapshot
Raymond James characterizes current price momentum across major North American equity benchmarks as mixed. The S&P 500, TSX Composite and Nasdaq 100 have each reclaimed both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while the Russell 2000 has stalled, according to the firm's technical assessment.
Moving averages and trend confirmation
The firm notes that multi-day closes above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages serve to confirm that both short-term and intermediate-term price trends are upward for the indices that have cleared those thresholds. Raymond James states that the markets appear to have repaired the technical damage sustained in March by reclaiming those moving-average levels.
Geopolitical context and sector rotation
Raymond James links the technical improvements in part to the situation in West Asia appearing to be drawing to a close, and it points to a rotation of sector leadership back toward Information Technology, Industrials and Basic Materials. The firm says that this pattern of sector performance is consistent with Phase 2 of its Market Cycle Model.
Investment stance and time horizon
The firm views episodes of near-term weakness as opportunities to add cyclical exposure, arguing that the intermediate-term rally phase could extend into July. That positioning reflects the view that redeployment into sectors tied to economic sensitivity may be rewarded if the Phase 2 view holds.
Top-performing sectors and cautionary triggers
Raymond James identifies Information Technology, Materials and Industrials among the top four performing sectors year-to-date. At the same time, it cautions that failure to remain above the respective 200-day moving averages, together with relative outperformance by Energy, Basic Materials and Consumer Staples, could signal a transition into Phase 3 of the Market Cycle Model.
Downside scenario
The firm also notes a more severe technical danger: a multi-week move below the four-year moving average by most North American equity indices would be consistent with a secular bear market. That outcome would represent a materially different regime from the intermediate rally described above.
Raymond James' assessment highlights a mix of constructive technical signs for large-cap benchmarks alongside a stalled small-cap index, with sector leadership and moving-average behavior serving as the key signals monitoring whether the market remains in an intermediate rally or shifts toward a later phase of the cycle.