Pfizer Inc. shares rose 0.2% to $26.49 on Monday as market participants positioned themselves ahead of the company's quarterly earnings release, which is scheduled to be published before trading begins on Tuesday.
Analyst consensus heading into the report points to a decline in top-line revenue of roughly 5%, placing expected sales near $16.95 billion. On the bottom line, adjusted earnings per share are forecast to fall by about 9.5% to $0.57, compared with $0.63 in the same quarter a year earlier.
Investors will be viewing those projections in the context of Pfizer's recent record on estimates. Over the last eight quarters, the company has matched revenue projections in six instances. Adjusted EPS has exceeded analyst forecasts in each of those eight quarters, indicating a pattern of outperformance on profit measures even as sales have at times fallen short.
Looking beyond the immediate reporting period, Pfizer has cautioned that the coming years will be difficult, beginning with 2026. The company attributes that outlook to several factors:
- decreasing sales of its COVID-19 vaccine and treatment;
- price reductions it agreed to provide to the U.S. government; and
- the expiration of patents on key medicines.
That guidance contributed to a 2026 profit forecast from Pfizer that fell below Wall Street consensus, according to the company. Separately, the administration under former President Trump has reached agreements with Pfizer and other drugmakers to lower the prices of medicines supplied to the government Medicaid program and to customers who pay cash.
Despite these headwinds, Pfizer's stock has advanced about 6% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500 healthcare index, which has gained roughly 0.2% over the same period. The relatively stronger performance suggests investors have, to date, found some resilience in Pfizer's valuation despite the company signaling a more challenging multi-year outlook.
Market participants will be watching Tuesday's results for confirmation of the projected revenue and EPS declines and for any additional management commentary on how Pfizer plans to navigate the factors cited as pressuring future profitability.
Key data points:
- Monday share price: $26.49, up 0.2%
- Expected revenue: ~5% decline to around $16.95 billion
- Expected adjusted EPS: $0.57, down 9.5% from $0.63 a year earlier
- Recent track record: revenue met estimates 6 of last 8 quarters; adjusted EPS beat estimates in each of the last 8 quarters