Wednesday, February 4, 2026, brings a dense line-up of economic releases that market participants will watch closely for signals on labor market momentum, services-sector dynamics and energy supply. The convergence of a private payrolls print, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs), two separate services-sector PMI readings and the Energy Information Administration's weekly crude inventory data presents multiple channels through which markets can revise near-term pricing and risk appetite.
Labor market indicators
The morning begins with the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report at 8:15 AM ET, where consensus expects a 46K print compared with the prior 41K. The ADP reading, covering private-sector payrolls, is frequently monitored as an early gauge ahead of the government nonfarm payrolls figure.
At 9:00 AM ET the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the JOLTs Job Openings data, with the forecast set at 7.230 million vacancies versus the previous 7.146 million. The JOLTs survey measures job openings across the economy and is used to assess labor demand and possible wage pressure trends.
Services-sector activity and sentiment
Two headline services indicators follow: a Markit-style Services PMI at 9:45 AM ET and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 AM ET. The Services PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 52.5, a level that sits above the neutral 50 threshold and therefore signals expansion according to the survey's design.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 53.5, down from the prior 54.4. The ISM services index provides a broad measure of non-manufacturing activity, where readings above 50 indicate expansion.
Energy stocks and inflationary implications
Energy markets will be watching the EIA Crude Oil Inventories release at 10:30 AM ET. The previous weekly report recorded a decline of 2.295 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories. Weekly inventory changes are closely observed for their potential to influence petroleum pricing and, by extension, near-term inflation dynamics.
Additional scheduled releases
Wednesday's calendar also contains a suite of related indicators that flesh out the picture of economic activity and market flow:
- 9:45 AM ET - S&P Global Composite PMI: Expected to hold at 52.8. This combined manufacturing and services index provides a wider view of economic momentum.
- 10:00 AM ET - ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment: The prior reading stood at 52.0. This component isolates employment conditions within the services sector.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Cushing Oil Inventories: The last reported change showed a decrease of 0.278 million barrels. This gauges crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for U.S. benchmark crude.
In addition to those items, market participants will receive a longer list of weekly and survey-based detail that can influence specific commodity, industrial and consumer-facing sectors:
- 7:00 AM ET - MBA Mortgage Applications: The previous week showed a decrease of 8.5% in application volume.
- 7:00 AM ET - MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: The prior reading was 6.24% for the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate.
- 7:00 AM ET - Mortgage Refinance Index: Previously 1,332.2, covering refinance application activity.
- 7:00 AM ET - Mortgage Market Index: Previously 363.3, measuring all mortgage application activity that week.
- 7:00 AM ET - MBA Purchase Index: Previously 193.3, tracking purchase mortgage applications.
- 10:00 AM ET - ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity: Previous reading 55.2, a component that measures current service-sector activity.
- 10:00 AM ET - ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices: Previous reading 65.1, a prices component within the ISM services report.
- 10:00 AM ET - ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders: Previous reading 56.5, tracking new orders received by service firms.
- 10:30 AM ET - Gasoline Inventories: Previously increased by 0.223 million barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: Previously rose 0.329 million barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Crude Imports: Previously decreased by 1.706 million barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock: Previously increased by 0.026 million barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Gasoline Production: Previously increased by 0.791 million barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Refinery Crude Runs: Previously decreased by 0.395 million barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillate Fuel Production: Previously decreased by 0.268 million barrels.
- 10:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates: Previously decreased by 2.4%.
- 2:00 PM ET - Total Vehicle Sales: Expected at 15.50 million annualized versus the prior 16.00 million. This measures the annualized pace of new vehicle purchases domestically.
- 6:30 PM ET - Fed Governor Cook Speaks: Remarks could provide commentary relevant to monetary policy direction and the broader economic outlook.
Market implications and how participants may react
Taken together, the morning's labor-market reads and services-sector sentiment indicators will offer fresh inputs for traders and analysts assessing demand-side strength and potential wage or price pressures. The EIA inventory updates provide a separate, commodity-anchored data set that can move energy prices and feed into inflation expectations. Mortgage and vehicle sales metrics arriving earlier and later in the day add further granularity on consumption and financing conditions.
Because several of these releases are interrelated - for example, a tightening labor market can support services demand and wage-driven price pressures, while oil inventory swings can influence headline inflation measures - market reactions may be cross-asset and immediate. Participants should expect that deviations from the expected figures could lead to intra-day volatility as positioning adjusts to the new data.
Where to follow updates
For the full timeline and any updates to release times or revisions, market participants can consult the Economic Calendar. The calendar provides the schedule and comparative prior readings for traders and analysts tracking these same metrics throughout the day.