Stock Markets February 25, 2026

Nvidia Sees First-Quarter Revenue Above Street Forecast on Ongoing AI Spend

Company projects roughly $78 billion in fiscal Q1 sales as Big Tech continues heavy investment in AI infrastructure

By Derek Hwang NVDA GOOGL MSFT AMZN META
Nvidia Sees First-Quarter Revenue Above Street Forecast on Ongoing AI Spend
NVDA GOOGL MSFT AMZN META

Nvidia forecast fiscal first-quarter sales that exceed analysts' expectations, citing sustained investment from large technology firms in artificial intelligence compute capacity. The chipmaker reported stronger-than-expected results for the January quarter, said it has licenses to ship limited quantities of a top AI chip to China, and signaled it has inventory and capacity to meet demand over coming quarters. The company also said it will include stock-based compensation in its non-GAAP measures.

Key Points

  • Nvidia forecast fiscal Q1 sales of $78 billion, plus or minus 2%, versus analysts' average estimate of $72.60 billion - impacts semiconductor sector and data center equipment suppliers.
  • January-quarter revenue was $68.13 billion, beating the $66.21 billion estimate, with adjusted profit of $1.62 per share versus $1.53 expected - relevant to equity markets and chipmakers.
  • Nvidia has received U.S. government licenses to ship "small amounts" of H200 chips to China but did not include expected China revenue in its current-quarter forecast - affects international trade flows and supply chain planning.

Chip designer Nvidia said it expects fiscal first-quarter revenue above market projections, reflecting continued heavy spending by major technology companies on processors for artificial intelligence. Shares of the company rose more than 3% in after-hours trading following the announcement.

The company provided a sales outlook of $78 billion for the fiscal first quarter, plus or minus 2 percent. That compares with the average analyst forecast of $72.60 billion, according to LSEG data. Nvidia said its January-quarter revenue came in at $68.13 billion, topping the $66.21 billion estimate compiled by LSEG. Adjusted earnings were $1.62 per share, versus the $1.53-per-share estimate, LSEG data showed.

Executives pointed to ongoing commitments from large cloud operators and technology firms as the primary driver of demand for Nvidia's higher-end AI accelerators. "Our customers are racing to invest in AI compute - the factories powering the AI industrial revolution and their future growth," Chief Executive Jensen Huang said in a statement.

Wall Street interest in Nvidia's performance centers on whether the substantial capital spending by big technology firms is translating into returns on data center infrastructure and processor purchases. The article noted that Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com and Meta Platforms have collectively planned significant capital expenditures, with much of that budget targeted at data centers and processors.

At the same time, competitive pressures are visible. Advanced Micro Devices is preparing to introduce a new flagship AI server later this year and has secured deals with some of Nvidia's largest customers, including Meta. Alphabet's Google has also become a prominent competitor after reaching an agreement to supply Anthropic with its in-house Tensor Processing Units and is reportedly in talks with Meta about chip supply. The piece noted that major tech firms are devoting resources to develop and deploy proprietary chips within their own data centers.

Nvidia's revenue guidance for the current quarter was issued without anticipated sales of the company's data center chips to China. The firm said its forecast did not assume any revenue from such sales. However, Nvidia disclosed it had obtained licenses this month from the U.S. government to ship "small amounts" of its H200 chips to customers in China.

Analysts and investors had been watching closely for the potential resumption of Nvidia AI chip shipments to China after earlier export restrictions had limited sales. Nvidia's chief executive previously expressed hope that China would permit sales of the H200 and indicated that licensing was being finalized. The article also noted that rival AMD added AI-chip sales back into its forecast for the current quarter after it secured licenses to ship some modified processors to China.

Separately, Nvidia said it has ensured inventory and manufacturing capacity sufficient to meet demand beyond the next several quarters. The company also announced a change in its non-GAAP reporting: it will include stock-based compensation expense in those measures. Nvidia characterized stock-based compensation as a core element of its compensation program used to attract and retain technical talent.


Contextual summary

Nvidia's optimistic revenue outlook and the reported quarter results underscore continued momentum for its AI-focused processors, driven by large-scale spending from major cloud and social media companies. Yet the company faces competition from other chipmakers and from Big Tech's own efforts to design and deploy proprietary chips in their data centers.

Risks

  • Rising competition - AMD and Alphabet/Google are developing and deploying rival AI chips and have struck deals with major customers, which could alter market share dynamics in the semiconductor and cloud infrastructure sectors.
  • Geopolitical and export-control uncertainty - Nvidia's forecast excludes anticipated revenue from sales to China, and shipments are currently limited to small amounts under U.S. licenses, creating revenue uncertainty tied to regulatory approvals that affect international sales.
  • Concentration of demand - Nvidia's outlook depends heavily on continued capital expenditure from a handful of large technology companies for data centers and processors, introducing demand risk for the semiconductor and data-center equipment markets if spending priorities change.

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