Nutrien posted first-quarter earnings per share of $0.51, which Jefferies said exceeded its estimate by $0.02. The same result was $0.02 below consensus forecasts.
The company's quarter was supported mainly by performance in its Retail and Nitrogen businesses. Jefferies' breakdown showed the Retail segment added $0.04 to earnings while Nitrogen contributed $0.05. Potash results were in line with expectations, but Phosphate lagged, coming in $0.04 below estimates.
Jefferies described global fertilizer markets as remaining tight. Demand for potash and nitrogen is strong while supplies of nitrogen and phosphate are constrained. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has further restricted global fertilizer availability. According to Jefferies, normalization of supply depends on the reopening of the Strait and completion of necessary infrastructure repairs, and these disruptions could continue into 2027.
Underlying demand drivers remain robust, with sustained consumption for food, feed, and biofuels supporting higher crop production and continued use of crop inputs. Corteva's outlook for planting referenced in the report projects roughly 95 million U.S. corn acres in 2026, a decline of about 4% year-over-year, and about 85 million U.S. soybean acres in 2026, an increase of roughly 5% year-over-year.
For fiscal 2026, Nutrien provided segment-level guidance and targets. The company expects Retail segment EBITDA in the range of $1.75 billion to $1.95 billion, which represents about 4% growth at the midpoint. Nutrien anticipates proprietary products gross margins will expand by 7% to 9% year-over-year. The firm also indicated that approximately 70% of fiscal 2026 Retail earnings are expected to be realized in the first half of the year.
Volume guidance for 2026 was specified by product: potash sales volumes are projected at 14.1 million to 14.7 million tons, nitrogen sales at 9.2 million to 9.7 million tons, and phosphate sales at 2.4 million to 2.6 million tons.
On portfolio moves, Nutrien said it is refining its business mix, targeting the sale of its Brazilian soybean seed business in the second half of 2026. Strategic reviews are in progress for its phosphate operations and its Trinidad Nitrogen business, with potential sales under consideration.
Balance-sheet metrics reported for the first quarter of 2026 show net debt to last twelve months EBITDA at 1.4 times. Share repurchases are planned at about $55 million per month in the second quarter, up from $50 million per month in the first quarter.
Outlook
Nutrien's near-term performance appears linked to the trajectory of fertilizer supply constraints and crop input demand. The company has provided clear segment-level targets for 2026 while continuing to review non-core assets as it adjusts its portfolio.