Morgan Stanley's review of March vehicle shipments in China shows a broad uptick in monthly deliveries across several domestic manufacturers and notable increases in overseas volumes for some groups.
XPeng is scheduled to unveil the new Mona M03 on Thursday, and the model will feature the companys AI Turing chip. The firms expanding VLA 2.0 test-drive program has drawn investor attention - market participants are monitoring the rate at which test drives convert into confirmed orders.
BYD recorded 120,000 overseas deliveries in March, a 19% increase from February. That performance lifted BYDs first-quarter overseas shipments to 321,000 units, representing a 56% increase from the same quarter a year earlier. Morgan Stanley notes the company remains on track to achieve its full-year target of 1.5 million units or more.
Li Auto exceeded its first-quarter guidance by roughly 5,000 units, delivering about 24,000 units of its i6 model in March compared with 16,000 units in February. The company has announced plans to launch a facelifted L9 Livis model in the second quarter.
NIO reported deliveries of 16,300 units of its ES8 model in March, a 44% rise from February. The group's Onvo and Firefly marques posted deliveries of 6,900 and 6,100 units in March, increases of 131% and 130% respectively from the prior month. NIO has scheduled the market introduction of its ES9 model for April 9.
Geely's total deliveries came in at 233,000 units for March, up 13% from February and effectively flat versus the same month last year. The group's overseas shipments reached 82,000 units in March, a 34% gain from February. Within Geely's portfolio, Lynk deliveries rose 1% year-on-year to 25,000 units, while ZEEKR posted 29,000 units in March, an increase of 90% from March 2025.
The data compiled by Morgan Stanley underscores a month where several Chinese automakers posted sequential gains and in some cases accelerated international shipments. Planned product introductions and the conversion performance of test-drive programs are among the near-term items market participants are watching.
Key points
- BYD expanded overseas shipments to 120,000 units in March, lifting Q1 overseas sales to 321,000 units and keeping the company on course for a 1.5 million-plus full-year target - sectors impacted: automotive manufacturing, international auto trade.
- Li Auto, NIO and Geely reported month-on-month delivery increases, with Li Autos i6 deliveries notably above guidance and NIO showing strong gains across ES8, Onvo and Firefly brands - sectors impacted: electric vehicles, consumer demand.
- XPeng's imminent Mona M03 launch, featuring an AI Turing chip, and NIO's scheduled ES9 debut on April 9 highlight product cycle catalysts that could influence near-term sales trajectories - sectors impacted: EV technology, automotive R&D.
Risks and uncertainties
- Order conversion from XPengs expanding VLA 2.0 test-drive program remains under observation - this could affect near-term sales outcomes for XPeng and investor expectations - markets impacted: automotive retail and investor sentiment.
- Planned model launches (XPeng Mona M03, Li Auto L9 Livis facelift, NIO ES9) represent execution-sensitive events; delays or weaker-than-expected uptake would alter projected delivery patterns - sectors impacted: vehicle production and supply chain.
- Despite sequential gains, some year-on-year comparisons are mixed (for example Geely was flat year-on-year), indicating variability in demand that could influence manufacturers exposed to both domestic and overseas markets - sectors impacted: automotive sales and exports.