Overview
Following first-quarter reports from DoorDash Inc (NASDAQ:DASH), Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:UBER) and Instacart (NASDAQ:CART), Morgan Stanley outlined five cross-cutting themes it sees shaping the gig economy. The firm also raised its price target on Snap Inc to $7, an 8% increase from its prior $6.50 target.
Demand and engagement remain robust
Morgan Stanley observed that demand held up across rideshare, food delivery and grocery/retail delivery. Both user growth and higher order frequency contributed to that resilience, according to the note.
Membership programs are scaling
The research team reported continued expansion of subscription offerings such as DoorDash’s DashPass and Uber One. Morgan Stanley noted that subscribers spend roughly three times as much as non-subscribers, and that DoorDash’s U.S. DashPass membership showed acceleration in the first quarter driven by stronger gross additions and reduced churn.
Grocery and retail delivery dynamics
On the competitive front, Morgan Stanley estimated DoorDash’s online grocery and retail gross order value (GOV) at $4.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026, a 32% year-over-year increase. Uber’s GOV was estimated at $3.5 billion, up 40% year-over-year. Instacart’s GOV was larger at $10.3 billion but grew more slowly, increasing 13% year-over-year. Morgan Stanley highlighted the pace differential: DoorDash and Uber are expanding their grocery/retail GOV at roughly three times the rate of Instacart.
"We estimate DASH/UBER’s online grocery/retail business is now ~40%/~35% the size of CART’s GOV, but DASH/UBER are growing ~3X the rate and gaining share," the note said.
Productivity and GenAI-enabled tools
Both DoorDash and Instacart flagged enhancements in merchant and inventory onboarding driven by GenAI, which Morgan Stanley suggested could support additional offline-to-online volume migration.
Competitive watch: Amazon
The note singled out Amazon as a competitor to monitor, citing its expanding "Amazon Now" offering and developments in agentic and robotics capabilities.
Firm ratings and financial model adjustments
- Morgan Stanley kept an "overweight" rating on DoorDash with a $275 price target, implying 48% upside from the then-current price of $167.97. That target is founded on a 25x multiple applied to a 2027 adjusted EBITDA projection of $4.806 billion, with revenue forecasts of $17.65 billion in 2026 and $21.26 billion in 2027.
- Uber retained an "overweight" rating and a $100 price target, implying 26% upside from $79.17. That valuation is based on a 14x multiple on 2027 adjusted EBITDA of $14.188 billion. Morgan Stanley projected total gross bookings of $234.29 billion in 2026 and $275.3 billion in 2027, and it raised its 2027 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates by 2% each following a first-quarter Mobility beat.
- Instacart remained an "equal-weight" holding with a $48 price target. First-quarter orders totaled 91 million, 2.7% below a 94 million estimate, and adjusted EBITDA was $300 million, essentially in line with a $303 million estimate. The firm’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast for Instacart is $1.286 billion.
Snap update
Morgan Stanley raised its Snap price target to $7 from $6.50 after the company reported a first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $233.3 million, beating an estimate of $186.1 million. The firm offset part of that increase by removing an expected Perplexity partnership that had been modeled to contribute up to $400 million in high-margin revenue in 2027. The research note also acknowledged a decline of 2 million North America users quarter-over-quarter. Morgan Stanley trimmed its revenue estimates for Snap by 1.2% for 2026 and 2.9% for 2027 but increased its 2026 EBITDA estimate by 13.5%.
Takeaway
Morgan Stanley’s note captures a mix of outcomes across the gig platforms: durable demand and subscription-driven monetization, rapid grocery/retail GOV growth at DoorDash and Uber relative to Instacart, and company-specific adjustments to near-term revenue and partnership assumptions, as evidenced by the changes to the Snap model.