Morgan Stanley says the recent softening in Mounjaro sales across Brazil appears driven by constrained supply, not by a decline in consumer demand. The bank cited persistent retailer feedback that product availability has been limited despite continued interest from patients and customers.
According to Morgan Stanley, import flows of U.S. GLP-1 products were light in December and January, a pattern that could have curtailed the volumes reflected in local sales figures. The firm noted a marked increase in imports in February, which may point to a near-term inflection in IQVIA data if the trend is sustained.
For Raia Drogasil, the uptick in imports lowers immediate worries about deteriorating sales momentum. Morgan Stanley, however, emphasized that confirmation in IQVIA reporting is necessary to fully de-risk assumptions about recovery in retail-level sales.
The analysis also addressed competitive dynamics for semaglutide. Morgan Stanley observed structural headwinds for that product, noting that data from Denmark show a plateau as more patients migrate to Mounjaro. The firm expects this pressure on semaglutide to grow following the product's loss of exclusivity.
On pricing, Morgan Stanley reported stability across the market, with only early and selective signs of discounts for Mounjaro. The bank did not find clear evidence that Novo Nordisk has implemented the portfolio-wide price reductions it previously announced.
In sum, the investment bank's read of the current environment is that distribution and import patterns are likely the proximate cause of the slowdown observed in Brazil, while underlying demand signals remain intact. The February import rebound and forthcoming IQVIA releases will be important to watch for confirmation of a turnaround in recorded sales.
Summary
Morgan Stanley believes supply limitations, reflected in retailer reports and weak U.S. GLP-1 imports for December and January, are primarily responsible for the recent slowdown in Mounjaro sales in Brazil. A strong rebound in February imports could signal a reversal in IQVIA sales data; confirmation is needed to reduce uncertainty, particularly for retail players such as Raia Drogasil. Semaglutide faces structural challenges as patients shift to Mounjaro, and pricing has remained broadly stable with only isolated discounting observed.