Morgan Stanley upgraded STMicroelectronics to "overweight" from "equal-weight" on Thursday and raised its price target to €36 from €24, citing a sharp pickup in data centre demand alongside early signs of recovery in industrial end markets.
The Swiss-listed chipmaker was trading at €28.74 on the Paris exchange as of Wednesday.
In its note, Morgan Stanley projected that STMicroelectronics would generate $560 million in data centre-related revenue in fiscal year 2026, rising to $1.67 billion in 2027 and $2.52 billion in 2028. The brokerage described this as a compound annual growth rate of 108% between 2025 and 2028.
"A new growth vector emerging in data centres," the analysts wrote, identifying the company’s power semiconductors and photonic integrated circuits as primary drivers of that expansion.
Management recently raised the company’s own data-centre guidance at a Morgan Stanley conference to levels described as "nicely above €500 mn" for 2026 and "well above €1 bn" for 2027. Executives highlighted opportunities in 800-volt power architecture and optical networking, and said production of the PIC100 photonic chip is expected to quadruple by 2027.
Following these developments, Morgan Stanley adjusted its revenue and earnings forecasts. The brokerage increased its 2026 revenue estimate by 3% to $13.74 billion and its 2027 estimate by 8% to $15.92 billion, both figures sitting above consensus. Adjusted earnings per share estimates were raised to $1.24 for 2026, a 2% uplift, and to $2.26 for 2027, a 23% increase.
Valuation metrics in Morgan Stanley’s update placed the stock at 18 times its 2027 EPS estimate of €1.95 to justify the €36 target. At the then-current share price the brokerage noted the stock traded at 14.7 times its 2027 estimated earnings.
The firm’s model anticipates a recovery in gross margins from 2025 lows, with gross margin rising to 35.7% in 2026 and to 38.3% in 2027. Adjusted EBIT margin is forecast to widen to 9.2% and 14.9% in those two years, respectively.
Morgan Stanley also outlined scenario-based valuation outcomes. In a bull case - contingent on macro resilience and gross margins near 40% - the price target rises to €53. Conversely, a bear case of €11 assumes extended macro weakness and ongoing under-utilisation charges.
The upgrade arrives as STMicroelectronics integrates NXP’s MEMS business, acquired in February. Morgan Stanley expects that transaction to support automotive revenue growth of 11% year-on-year in 2026.
Additional commercial research commentary in the original briefing noted that an AI-driven stock screener evaluates STMPA among other companies using a broad set of financial metrics. That commentary referenced past AI-selected winners and suggested investors can compare STMPA to alternative opportunities, but did not alter the firm-level forecasts or valuation scenarios outlined above.