Morgan Stanley’s quantitative research desk published a note dated Wednesday identifying four European stocks that its models indicate are likely to exceed consensus earnings expectations when they report in March. The list comprises Next Plc, Prudential Plc, Assicurazioni Generali and Endeavour Mining - all of which carry "overweight" ratings from Morgan Stanley’s fundamental analysts.
The bank’s proprietary Earnings Surprise Composite ranks securities using three inputs: Earnings Forecast Landscape, Earnings Quality and Broader Forecast Dynamics. Stocks ranked in the top two quintiles of that composite are those Morgan Stanley judges most likely to deliver positive surprises against market estimates.
Next achieved the highest composite placement, at the 97th percentile, and is scheduled to report on March 24. The UK-based retailer is reported in the note as trading at £13,235 on the London Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of $21.6 billion. Morgan Stanley highlighted Next’s strength on the Broader Forecast Dynamics measure, where it hit the 98th percentile.
London-listed Prudential Plc ranked second on the composite at the 90th percentile and is expected to publish results on March 17. The insurer is cited with a market value of $36.2 billion.
Italy’s Assicurazioni Generali appears as another top candidate to beat expectations, scoring at the 84th percentile on the composite and set to report on March 12. Generali is noted in the note as trading at €34.9 on the Milan exchange and carrying a market capitalization of $62.5 billion.
Endeavour Mining completes the quartet, with an 81st percentile composite score and an expected reporting date of March 5. The miner is listed in London at £5,185 and is singled out for delivering a perfect 1.00 score on the Earnings Quality component, according to Morgan Stanley.
The research note also summarizes historical performance characteristics for the Earnings Surprise Composite strategy applied to Europe. Since the composite’s live launch in 2024, the strategy has produced a pre-cost Sharpe ratio of 0.92 for European names. Extending the analysis back to 2019 - including the period before live deployment - the strategy’s pre-cost Sharpe ratio for Europe stands at 0.71.
Morgan Stanley reported that the European implementation of the strategy has returned 19.0% since the start of 2025. For the live period, the strategy’s maximum drawdown in Europe was -8.6%, with a Calmar ratio of 1.24 and a Sortino ratio of 1.31, as stated in the note.
At the same time, the note lists nine European stocks the bank views as more likely to disappoint on earnings. Those names - several of which carry "underweight" or "equal-weight" analyst ratings - include ENEL, Reckitt Benckiser, Lindt and Legal and General. ENEL registered the lowest composite score among that subset at a 0.09 percentile, while Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane SpA is shown as the lowest-ranked stock overall at a 0.02 percentile.
The brokerage’s approach also assumes no trading in months with few expected reporters under the strategy. As a result, the note specifies there will be no US trading in March under the strategy, while European trading activity will continue.
These model-driven rankings and the accompanying performance statistics provide investors with a quantitative lens on which European issuers Morgan Stanley’s research judges most likely to out- or under-deliver versus consensus. The bank’s composite combines near-term forecast dynamics, measured forecast dispersion and indicators of reported earnings quality to arrive at its rankings.