Traders executed large crude futures positions in the minutes leading up to a public post by the U.S. president that changed market expectations and sparked a dramatic selloff, exchange data and calculations show. Between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT, market participants placed orders on 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI futures, a volume Reuters calculated as being worth well over $500 million. Within that same minute, selling predominated the activity recorded.
The subsequent presidential message at 11:05 GMT announced a five-day postponement of attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure and noted ongoing constructive talks between the two governments. The communication triggered an intense market reaction. In the 60 seconds after the post, turnover surged with more than 13,000 lots of Brent and WTI futures changing hands - an amount equivalent to around 13 million barrels of oil.
Price moves were rapid and severe. Brent crude tumbled to roughly $99 a barrel from about $112 before the pre-announcement trades, while WTI fell to around $86 from near $99 prior to the post. The selloff reflected investors pricing in the possibility of de-escalation, which could ease constraints on millions of barrels currently restricted in the Gulf.
Exchange records show the pre-post trades produced a spike of roughly 2,000 lots in Brent futures around 10:50 GMT, a jump considerably larger than earlier intraday activity. But the surge following the 11:05 GMT post dwarfed that earlier spike in volume and contributed to the sharp drop in prices.
Attempts to obtain comment from the Intercontinental Exchange, which lists Brent contracts, and CME Group, owner of the NYMEX exchange where WTI is traded, were not immediately successful. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission declined to comment. The White House did not respond to a request for comment, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was not immediately available.
Beyond the minutes around the post, oil markets remain under strain from supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict. The war has cut roughly one fifth of the world’s daily oil supply, leaving prices more than 40% higher than they were at the onset of the conflict in late February. That supply shock has coincided with surging trading volumes and volatility.
Average daily turnover in Brent futures during the three years before the conflict was about 300,000 lots. In the four weeks since the war began, daily volumes have doubled and pushed through record highs above one million lots, equivalent to roughly one billion barrels of oil traded per day. For the moment, Brent is trading just below $104 as markets weigh persistent uncertainty over the full economic impact of the conflict and the status of any diplomatic engagement, with Iran denying it is in talks with the U.S.
It was not possible to identify the counterparties behind the pre-post trades from the available data. The concentration of large trades in a narrow timeframe and the explosion in turnover after the post underscore how quickly price discovery can occur in stressed markets and how a single public communication can reframe investor expectations within moments.
All figures regarding lots traded, price movements, and the timing of events reflect exchange data and calculations reported contemporaneously to market participants.