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Stock Markets March 31, 2026

Major UK Supermarkets Extend Share Gains as Grocery Sales Pick Up

Barclays data shows a faster pace of grocery growth over the four weeks to March 22, with inflation steady and mixed outcomes across retailers

By Hana Yamamoto
Major UK Supermarkets Extend Share Gains as Grocery Sales Pick Up

UK grocery market expansion accelerated to 4.4% in the four weeks ending March 22, while sector inflation remained steady at 4.3%. Tesco, Sainsbury and Marks & Spencer registered faster market share increases in the most recent period, Aldi lost share and Ocado's recent momentum slowed, Barclays said.

Key Points

  • UK grocery growth accelerated to 4.4% in the four weeks to March 22 while grocery inflation remained steady at 4.3% - impacts retail and consumer staples sectors.
  • Tesco, Sainsbury and Marks & Spencer accelerated market share gains; Morrison and ASDA improved modestly; Aldi lost 27 basis points of share; Ocado's share gains slowed - affects supermarket competition and market structure.
  • Barclays is monitoring potential inflationary effects from the Middle East conflict and will discuss the outlook with the IGD Chief Economist - relevant for inflation-sensitive sectors and food supply chains.

Overview

Barclays reported that UK grocery sales growth quickened to 4.4% in the four weeks to March 22, up from 3.4% in the preceding four-week period. At the same time, inflation across the supermarket sector held at 4.3% for the most recent period, a combination that Barclays said points to an uptick in volume and mix-driven growth.

Winners and laggards

In Barclays' market share dataset, three large retailers - Tesco, Sainsbury and Marks & Spencer - posted accelerated gains in market share during the latest four-week window. Morrison and ASDA showed modest sequential improvement, with ASDA noted to have recovered sharply through the period from December into February.

By contrast, Aldi recorded a market share decline of 27 basis points in the most recent period reported by Barclays. Ocado, which had enjoyed a period of strong share gains since September, experienced a pronounced slowdown in its rate of share increase.

Inflation and cost pressures

Barclays commented that it is too early to detect any pass-through to UK food inflation from the conflict in the Middle East. The bank arranged a call with the UK Institute for Grocery Distribution Chief Economist to take place on Wednesday at 10am UK time to discuss the outlook for food inflation in the UK.

Interpretation and implications

With headline grocery inflation steady at 4.3% while overall grocery growth accelerates to 4.4%, the data suggest an element of real growth driven by either higher volumes or favourable mix changes, according to Barclays' framing. The performance divergence among retailers highlights ongoing competitive dynamics within the UK retail grocery sector.

Methodological note

The figures referenced above come from Barclays' market share release covering the specific four-week period to March 22. Barclays' commentary and the scheduled call with the IGD Chief Economist are part of the bank's efforts to assess near-term food inflation trends.

Readers should note that this article reports the data and statements provided by Barclays and the scheduling information for the forthcoming call; it does not introduce additional figures or outside interpretation beyond that material.

Risks

  • Uncertainty over whether geopolitical developments in the Middle East will translate into higher food input costs and push UK food inflation higher - impacts consumer staples and packaged food producers.
  • Slowing share gains for some online and discounter players could indicate changing competitive momentum, which may affect pricing dynamics across the grocery sector.
  • The data cover a specific four-week window; short-term volatility or subsequent periods could alter the observed trends, affecting retail and investor assessments.

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