Shares in Maire, the Italian energy engineering company, rose over 6% on Wednesday after Kepler Cheuvreux moved the stock from a Hold to a Buy recommendation and set a new price target of €16. That target was established against a then-current share price of €12.84, implying upside of about 24.6%. Kepler said it made the change without altering its underlying financial model.
The broker described the roughly 20% fall in Maire's shares since the beginning of the Iran conflict as "completely exaggerated/unjustified" and argued operating performance had not been materially affected by the situation. Kepler noted that at the end of 2025 around 40% of Maire's backlog was tied to the Middle East, but that exposure was concentrated in five projects which are all covered by "force majeure" clauses. According to the broker, the principal risk from those contracts is a postponement of revenue recognition rather than a deterioration in margins.
On commercial prospects, Maire is targeting €9 billion in orders for the year, with €4.7 billion already locked in. Kepler said that the remaining roughly €4.5 billion of targeted orders sits predominantly outside the Middle East and is concentrated especially in Latin America.
Kepler's financial forecasts include adjusted net profits of €335.8 million for fiscal 2026, rising to €383.1 million in 2027 and €426.6 million in 2028. Adjusted earnings per share were projected at €1.02 in 2026, €1.17 in 2027 and €1.30 in 2028, compared with consensus EPS figures of €0.91, €1.03 and €1.15 for those same years.
The broker also published free cash flow projections of €135.8 million for 2026, €308.1 million for 2027 and €351.6 million for 2028. On valuation multiples, Kepler placed Maire's adjusted price-to-earnings ratio at 12.6 times for 2026, falling to 9.9 times by 2028, and estimated enterprise value to EBITDA at 6.8 times in 2026 and 5.4 times in 2028. Dividend yield was forecast to increase from 4.8% in 2026 to 6.1% in 2028.
Separately, Kepler expressed favourable views on NextChem's strategy within the Maire group. The broker flagged two acquisitions in the pipeline for NextChem and speculated that an initial public offering for NextChem could be launched in the second half of 2026 or in early 2027 to raise funds for capital expenditure.
Market data noted in the broker commentary put Maire's market capitalisation at €4.2 billion, with a 52-week trading range between €16.02 and €7.13 and an average daily trading volume of €18.6 million.
Context and implications
Kepler's upgrade rests on two principal points set out in its analysis: first, that Maire's operational footprint has not experienced major disruption from the Iran-related conflict; and second, that contractual protections and a geographically diversified pipeline limit the prospect of lasting margin damage. The broker's forecasts and valuation metrics underpin its view that the stock offers material upside from prevailing market prices.
Investors will likely watch execution on the €9 billion order target, the balance of the commercial pipeline outside the Middle East, and any developments around NextChem's potential acquisitions and IPO timetable.