Trip Chowdhry, historically known for a bullish stance on Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), issued a stark recommendation to clients this week: sell the shares and price them at $150 for 2026. Chowdhry framed his move around what he describes as a shattered AI investment narrative for the electric vehicle maker, a judgment made as Tesla stock closed at $367.96 on Friday and remains down about 18% year-to-date.
In a note circulated to clients, Chowdhry drew a pointed analogy between Tesla and 3D Systems Corporation (NYSE:DDD), citing his firm Global Equities Research's prior prediction that 3D Systems would plunge from a peak near $84 in 2013 to its current trading level of $1.93. "TSLA/xAi Story based investment thesis is over," he wrote, adding that "waiting for TSLA/xAI to come up with their next story for Stock to move up is utterly foolish."
Chowdhry's memo emphasized his firm's historical track record, noting an approximately 85% success rate on calls, and contained several direct challenges to the market. He asked investors to show evidence that Tesla is not "AI Illiterate" and warned against what he called "investment thesis inertia"—a tendency he says misled shareholders of 3D Systems in the past. "We were proven to be right on DDD then and we will be proven right on TSLA even now," he wrote, and urged clients to "take profits on TSLA, while you still can."
Mounting Wall Street pressure
Chowdhry's contrarian recommendation comes as other analysts have grown more cautious about Tesla's near-term outlook and valuation. UBS analyst Joseph Spak recently cut Q1 2026 delivery estimates to 345,000 vehicles, a decline of 18% from Q4 2025's 421,000 deliveries and 7% below consensus expectations of 371,000. UBS maintained a Sell rating with a $352 price target.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla to Equal-Weight from Overweight in December 2025, with analyst Andrew Percoco setting a $425 price target and commenting that "high expectations" on AI had brought the stock "closer to fair valuation." Bank of America also moved to Neutral from Buy, calling out that robotaxi services account for roughly 50% of Tesla's current valuation despite high execution risks.
On a multiples basis, the stock trades at roughly 210 times projected earnings over the next 12 months, which the note characterizes as making Tesla the second-most-expensive company in the S&P 500. Analyst consensus at present shows 23 buy ratings, 17 holds, and 8 sells with an average price target of $421.27.
Near-term catalysts to watch
Investors will be watching a pair of key upcoming events that could test the range of views on Tesla. First, the Q1 2026 delivery announcement, expected in early April, will indicate whether demand has softened toward UBS's 345,000 estimate or remains nearer the consensus of 371,000. Second, management commentary during Tesla's late April earnings call on AI initiatives, robotaxi timelines, and margin trends will be critical in assessing whether the company can substantiate the premium embedded in its valuation.
The gulf between bearish calls such as Chowdhry's $150 target and bullish estimates like Wedbush's $600 creates an unprecedented spread among analysts. The piece-level outcome, Chowdhry argues, will depend on whether Tesla can demonstrate measurable AI revenue and autonomous vehicle progress beyond narrative and projection.
Related notes and market tools mentioned
The note and wider coverage reference 3D Systems and its collapse from earlier highs to a current trading level of $1.93, drawing a cautionary parallel. Separately, the article references analytical tools and services that evaluate companies using AI-driven financial metrics, and mentions past winners highlighted by such methods, including Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%).
For investors, the immediate implications are material for the automotive and technology sectors, and for broader market sentiment where elevated multiples and AI expectations have been factored into valuations.