Kepler upgrade and valuation change
Kepler upgraded SOL (BIT:SOL) to a Buy rating from Hold and raised its price target to EUR56.50 from EUR54.50 after reviewing the company's fiscal 2025 results and medium-term outlook. The analyst firm said the combination of solid operating performance and an active acquisition pipeline supported the revised recommendation.
Financial results for fiscal 2025
SOL reported fiscal 2025 sales of EUR1.78 billion, representing a 10.3% increase year-over-year. Mergers and acquisitions accounted for 1.9 percentage points of that revenue growth. Operating profitability improved as EBITDA rose by 11.8% and the EBITDA margin expanded by 30 basis points to 25.4%. EBIT increased by 13.8% and net profit climbed 13% over the prior year.
Division performance and quarter-to-quarter trends
The company's Technical Gases division contributed to the top-line increase with growth of 8.2%, while the Homecare division was a stronger performer with growth of 12.3%. On a quarterly basis, fourth-quarter sales growth slowed to 8.2% year-over-year from 9.0% in the third quarter, a deceleration the report attributed primarily to a reduction in energy pass-through.
Balance sheet, M&A activity and cash flow
Net financial position at the end of the period was EUR485 million, which was stronger than Kepler's prior estimate of EUR516 million. Kepler attributed the improved position to lower-than-expected capital expenditure and reduced cash outflows related to M&A. During 2025 SOL completed acquisitions that produced total cash outflows of EUR17 million. Kepler also noted that the company anticipates benefiting from EUR6 million to EUR8 million under the Energy Release decree in 2026.
Analyst revisions and outlook
Following the results, Kepler raised its 2026 sales forecast for SOL to EUR1.92 billion from EUR1.90 billion and lifted its 2026 EBITDA estimate to EUR490 million from EUR481 million. The firm increased its earnings-per-share forecasts for 2026 through 2028 by between 2.0% and 3.5%, incorporating the full impact of eight acquisitions closed in 2025 and two transactions completed in early 2026.
Implications
Kepler's upgrade reflects a view that SOL's combination of organic growth, margin improvement, and recent acquisitive activity supports a more constructive valuation stance. The analyst revisions directly incorporate the cash costs of acquisitions completed in 2025 and their expected earnings contribution in the coming years.