JPMorgan on Friday moved SAP from Overweight to Neutral, citing a weaker near-term setup as growth in the company’s cloud backlog slows and strategic changes introduce additional uncertainty. The bank also cut its price target on SAP to 95 from 60.
U.S.-listed shares of SAP were down nearly 5% in premarket trading as of 04:33 ET.
In its note, JPMorgan said its earlier bullish view rested on expectations of accelerating revenue growth alongside meaningful margin expansion. That thesis has shifted as the company now confronts several headwinds, the analysts said.
A primary concern highlighted by the bank is a deceleration in SAP’s current cloud backlog, often referred to as CCB. JPMorgan expects that deceleration to persist as the cohort of customers who are migrating to the cloud matures. According to the note, backlog growth peaked in 2024 and has since slowed, with further moderation anticipated into 2026.
"In a market that now demands acceleration to counter prevailing software bear arguments, deceleration is unlikely to support near-term stock performance," the analysts led by Toby Ogg wrote.
Beyond the backlog trajectory, the team pointed to a potential strategic transition within SAP’s business model toward a consumption- or outcome-based approach. While the bank described this evolution as necessary, it cautioned that a move to usage-driven revenue could cause greater volatility in reported results because revenue would become less predictable.
JPMorgan added that such a shift may also "skew the traditional links between metrics that investors are currently wired up for," making forecasting more challenging for analysts and investors who rely on established relationships among performance indicators.
The note also flagged intensifying competition in the AI agent layer as another pressure point. JPMorgan observed rapid scaling by large language model providers and rising investment across peers, which it said will likely require incumbents, including SAP, to increase spending to remain competitive. This dynamic could weigh on margins and potentially spur higher levels of M&A activity in the sector.
"In aggregate, change is fast approaching and incumbents, including SAP, will need to invest and evolve to give themselves the best chance of remaining relevant as the AI cycle unfolds," the analysts wrote.
Reflecting these risks to profitability and margin expansion, JPMorgan reduced its non-IFRS EBIT and EPS estimates for 2026 through 2028 by mid-single-digit percentages versus prior projections.
The banks downgrade and adjusted forecasts show a more cautious stance toward SAP amid slower backlog growth, potential shifts in revenue mix, and rising competitive investment requirements. Investors will be watching the companys ability to manage the transition to any outcome-based model while defending margins as AI-related competition intensifies.
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