JPMorgan has signalled a more constructive near-term outlook for two European airport and transport infrastructure operators while taking a more cautious stance on a third. In its European Infrastructure preview note, the bank placed Fraport AG (ETR:FRAG) and Getlink SE (EPA:GETP) on a positive catalyst watch as both approach events and reporting that could lift visibility on dividends, guidance and medium-term earnings. At the same time, Zurich Airport (SIX:FHZN) was downgraded to Neutral amid a material upward revision to long-term capex and an elevated risk to free cash flow (FCF).
Analyst Elodie Rall outlined the case for Fraport by highlighting several near-term developments the company could use to shore up investor confidence. Rall said she expects management to "reassure on FCF delivery, provide a bullish guide for 2026, clarity on future capex and a potential longer term dividend policy." The note specifically points to an expected move toward close to breakeven free cash flow in 2025 and leaves open the possibility that fiscal 2026 guidance could surprise to the upside, backed by continued traffic growth and a slowing pace of operating cost increases.
Rall also catalogued structural improvements she sees at Fraport that contrast with some of the group's previous challenges. "More broadly, we see an improving set-up which inverts many of Fraport's historical weaknesses: declining capex, inflecting FCF, traffic momentum, slowing Opex, an SPP uplift and Ground Handling profitability," she wrote. Those operational elements are cited as potential drivers for a positive re-rate if management can translate them into clearer financial targets and shareholder returns.
Getlink was similarly placed on the positive catalyst list ahead of its February investor day. Rall said the company could deliver "positive commentary and medium term visibility on dividends, Eleclink and the Railway Network," and may provide additional detail on profit sharing and a medium-term earnings outlook. Although these near-term catalysts are constructive, Rall maintained a Neutral stance on Getlink's shares, pointing to headwinds in the macro and market backdrop. She noted that it will be difficult for Getlink to materially outperform the sector until either the yield environment in the U.K. and France improves or shuttle traffic receives stronger support from U.K. economic growth.
By contrast, Zurich Airport's profile prompted a downgrade. Management has lifted long-term capital expenditure expectations to CHF 350-400 million per year from roughly CHF 300 million previously, and commentary from the company suggested consensus expectations of a 7-10% tariff reduction are reasonable. Rall therefore assumed an 8% tariff cut and applied double-digit percentage reductions to her FCF forecasts over the coming decade. While traffic momentum at Zurich remains strong, the analyst concluded that higher investment requirements and uncertainty over tariffs outweigh operational positives, and adopted a more cautious position pending greater clarity.
JPMorgan's note highlights the importance of near-term guidance, dividend signals and capital spending plans for investors in airport and transport infrastructure names. For Fraport and Getlink, upcoming communications offer potential upside if management can convert operational trends into clearer financial and cash-return outcomes. For Zurich, the combination of increased capex guidance and tariff risk presents a more challenging cash flow outlook that has prompted the bank to lower its recommendation.