JPMorgan has launched coverage of North American gold producers by assigning an Overweight rating to Barrick Mining and a Neutral rating to Agnico Eagle Mines. The bank frames its sector outlook as broadly constructive for gold, pointing to robust central bank and ETF buying, an inelastic supply response from mines, and persistent uncertainty around US policy as key support factors for the metal.
Gold prices have climbed markedly over the past year, and gold mining equities have more than doubled in value over the same period. JPMorgan notes that Barrick has outperformed Agnico through that rally.
The firm places the two companies as the world’s second- and third-largest gold miners, respectively, but emphasizes that they present different investment propositions. JPMorgan characterizes Agnico as the sector’s premier operator based on its track record of execution, a favorable cost structure, and a regional footprint that the bank views as lower risk. At the same time, JPMorgan observes that much of Agnico’s next phase of growth is expected to occur in the 2030s and that the stock’s current valuation appears full.
By contrast, JPMorgan highlights Barrick’s extensive reserve base and nearer-term organic growth opportunities. The bank also raises caveats around Barrick, citing a mixed history on execution, an ongoing management transition, and exposure to higher-risk jurisdictions. Importantly, JPMorgan notes that Barrick’s shares are trading at a deeper discount to global peers than is typical historically, which in JPMorgan’s view leaves room for upside.
Looking at profitability and cash generation, JPMorgan projects both companies will deliver EBITDA margins of roughly 75% or higher in 2026 and 2027. The bank expects capital expenditures to increase, but it anticipates that free cash flow will still comfortably cover investment needs, support greater shareholder returns, and maintain net cash positions for both miners.
On valuation, JPMorgan assigned a $68 price target to Barrick using a blended valuation methodology. In its note the bank said the stock’s discount to peers suggests that challenges in Mali are more than reflected in the share price. For Agnico, JPMorgan set a $248 price target and pointed to the company’s premium valuation relative to peers as a reason for investors to await a more attractive entry point.
JPMorgan’s initial coverage also touches on investor tools: the note references an AI-driven screening tool that evaluates Barrick (referred to as B) alongside many companies using more than 100 financial metrics. That tool is described as identifying risk-reward opportunities without bias and the original note cited historical winners from the tool. The research piece additionally referenced a promotional sale offering.