European steel producers experienced a fresh round of analyst revisions on Thursday as J.P. Morgan revisited company ratings in light of proposed EU trade restrictions and the upcoming phase of carbon-pricing rules. The brokerage adjusted recommendations across stainless and carbon steel names to account for how changes to import quotas and CBAM charges may reconfigure EU pricing dynamics.
Policy backdrop and market consequences
At the center of J.P. Morgan's reassessment is a European Commission plan to cut the volume of duty-free steel imports by roughly 40%. If the European Parliament signs off, the new import regime would be implemented in mid-2026 and would coincide with the next phase of CBAM, which imposes charges on imported steel linked to its carbon intensity. The brokerage said the combination of tighter quotas and CBAM would materially change the pricing framework for steel sold into the EU.
How producers stack up
J.P. Morgan identified Aperam as the most likely stainless-steel beneficiary under the contemplated regime and upgraded the company from neutral to overweight. The firm highlighted Aperam's concentrated exposure to European end-markets - roughly 60% of the group's sales are generated within Europe, with the remaining sales predominantly in the United States and Asia. Based on expectations for higher regional prices and a rebound from what the broker characterizes as trough earnings, J.P. Morgan projects EBITDA growth of about 55% in 2026 and 100% in 2027 versus 2025. The broker's December 2027 price target for Aperam was set at 41.20 per share.
By contrast, Acerinox was downgraded to underweight because its earnings are much more U.S.-centric. J.P. Morgan notes the United States accounts for about 90% of Acerinox's group earnings, while its European operations remain less profitable. That limited direct exposure to the EU market diminishes Acerinox's leverage to higher regional steel prices that could result from import quotas and CBAM costs. The broker's December 2027 price target for Acerinox is 10.50 per share, which the note states is below the stock's recent trading level.
SSAB's rating was cut to neutral after a pronounced rise in its share price since late September. J.P. Morgan acknowledged SSAB's exposure to specialised and heavy steel segments used in infrastructure and defence, but said there is reduced scope for further relative outperformance following the run-up. The brokerage also pointed to expectations for lower U.S. plate steel spreads in 2026 - a function of stable steel prices combined with rising scrap costs - as a constraint on upside. J.P. Morgan's December 2027 price target for SSAB was placed at SEK 74 per share.
Other names and sector stance
Within the carbon-steel space, J.P. Morgan reiterated overweight ratings on ArcelorMittal and Voestalpine, naming them among its top picks. The broker noted both companies derive a significant portion of earnings from Europe and are therefore better positioned to benefit from a tighter import regime. Forecasts for 2026 EBITDA for these names were described as broadly in line with consensus.
Demand and margin context for stainless
Across stainless-steel producers, J.P. Morgan pointed to weak near-term demand indicators in Europe and the United States. European stainless spreads have recently returned to loss-making levels. Despite the current weakness, analysts in the note characterized the existing pricing structure as economically unsustainable under the proposed quota system, and they described fourth-quarter 2025 results as a trough point within a 2025-27 window.
Outlook
The note frames the upcoming policy changes as a potential structural pivot for European steel pricing. How individual producers fare will depend heavily on the regional mix of sales and on product exposure - particularly the balance between stainless and heavy/specialised steel segments. J.P. Morgans differentiated ratings reflect those exposure profiles and the broker's view on where pricing power may shift if import volumes are curbed and carbon-related import costs are enforced.
Key takeaways
- J.P. Morgan upgraded Aperam to overweight and set a December 2027 price target of 41.20 per share, forecasting significant EBITDA growth in 2026-27 versus 2025.
- Acerinox was downgraded to underweight due to limited European exposure, with roughly 90% of group earnings coming from the U.S.; the broker's December 2027 price target is 10.50 per share.
- SSAB was cut to neutral after strong share-price gains and due to expectations of lower U.S. plate steel spreads in 2026; the December 2027 price target is SEK 74 per share.
Note: This report reflects the content of the brokerage note as described and does not add additional forecasts or data beyond the figures and conclusions presented by the analyst.