J.P. Morgan has put FinecoBank Banca Fineco SpA (BIT:FBK) on Positive Catalyst Watch as the Italian online bank prepares for its first Capital Markets Day on March 4. The move came on Wednesday and was accompanied by an increase in J.P. Morgan's December 2027 price target to €27 from €26.40, while the firm maintained an "overweight" rating. FinecoBank shares closed at €19.72 on Feb. 24 on the FTSE MIB, moving more than 3% higher on the session.
The bank's research team said it anticipates FinecoBank will present growth targets for 2026-29 at the event that exceed consensus expectations. Those targets, J.P. Morgan argued, would likely prompt upward revisions to consensus earnings-per-share (EPS) forecasts and lead to multiple expansion for the stock.
Under J.P. Morgan's modelling, its FY26-29 EPS estimates are mid- to high-single-digit higher than Bloomberg consensus. The new €27 target equates to roughly 21 times FY27 EPS compared with the approximate 16 times multiple at which the shares currently trade.
"We expect that the CMD will be a positive catalyst for the stock and result in both a positive revision to consensus EPS and a multiple expansion," J.P. Morgan analysts wrote.
J.P. Morgan also raised its adjusted EBIT projections for FinecoBank, increasing the FY26 estimate to €1.06 billion from €1.03 billion and the FY27 estimate to €1.18 billion from €1.14 billion - respective uplifts of about 3% and 4.3%.
Customer metrics have shown steady acceleration in recent years. FinecoBank reported customer growth of 9% year-on-year in FY25, up from 6% in FY24 and 5% in FY23. Net new client acquisition jumped 56% year-on-year in 2025. Based on these trends, J.P. Morgan projects a 10.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in customers over 2026-29, which could raise total customers to more than 2.6 million by 2029 from roughly 1.8 million currently.
J.P. Morgan noted the broader Italian market context cited by management: nearly 50 million adults and about €6 trillion in net financial assets. The bank highlighted FinecoBank's total financial assets - defined as assets under management, assets under custody and deposit - grew at a 15% CAGR over 2022-2025, accelerating from a 9% CAGR recorded over 2019-2022. Total net flows rose by 33% in 2025 and 15% in 2024. J.P. Morgan expects management to guide to mid-teens CAGR in total financial assets for 2026-29.
On profitability, J.P. Morgan projects a 12% EPS CAGR across 2026-29, versus Bloomberg consensus of 11%, supported by an 11% revenue CAGR. The bank's revenue forecast is €1.44 billion for FY26, rising to €1.95 billion by FY29, compared with Bloomberg consensus figures of €1.41 billion and €1.84 billion for those years. Net profit estimates from J.P. Morgan are 3% to 7% above Bloomberg consensus across the period.
FinecoBank's stated cost-to-income target of below 30% is expected to be reiterated at the Capital Markets Day. J.P. Morgan's operating cost assumptions for the period sit low to mid single-digit above Bloomberg consensus.
J.P. Morgan highlighted three potential upside initiatives that are not yet fully reflected in consensus estimates. First, FinecoBank reported €12.3 billion in ETF assets under custody at end-2025, up 50% year-on-year, with ETFs representing 54% of AUC flows during the year. Assuming similar flows in 2026 and a 5 basis point distribution fee, J.P. Morgan estimated an incremental €7 million in annual revenue, or roughly 1% of its 2026 earnings estimate.
Second, securities lending could add materially to revenues. FinecoBank's equity assets under custody stood at €19 billion at end-2025. Management said on the third-quarter 2025 results call it expects to generate in excess of 20 basis points from lending activity on the amount lent, net of revenue shared with customers. Applying 20 basis points to €19 billion yields an estimated €38 million in additional annual revenue, or about 3.5% of J.P. Morgan's 2026 earnings estimate.
Third, FinecoBank is seeking regulatory approval to offer crypto trading. The bank is also planning geographic expansion into Germany. J.P. Morgan noted that near-term capital deployment is expected to prioritize reinvestment in the business rather than special distributions.
Market valuation and recent performance were also detailed. The stock's 52-week range is €14.25 to €23.07 and market capitalization stands at $14.15 billion. Year-to-date the stock is down 11.2% and has underperformed the FTSE MIB by 15.1% over the same period.
Contextual note: J.P. Morgan's placement of FinecoBank on Positive Catalyst Watch and the accompanying model adjustments reflect the bank's expectations for management to present stronger-than-consensus medium-term targets at the upcoming Capital Markets Day. The estimated impacts from ETF distribution fees and securities lending were quantified by J.P. Morgan, but these items were described as initiatives not yet embedded in market consensus.