Jefferies raised its rating on Mony Group to buy from hold and increased the price target to 230 pence from 205 pence, in a note published on Friday. The broker said the move reflects easing concern about artificial intelligence displacing price comparison websites and highlights the company’s attractive dividend profile.
The 230 pence target equates to approximately 51% upside versus Mony Group’s last closing price of 152.40 pence. Jefferies further estimates a 12-month total return of roughly 61% when expected dividends are included.
At the center of Jefferies’ argument is the view that worries over AI bypassing comparison sites are exaggerated. The brokerage points to regulatory complexity and data protection constraints as factors that make comparison platforms “mission-critical partners” for providers of large language models, rather than dispensable intermediaries.
Operationally, Mony has introduced a ChatGPT-integrated iteration of its MoneySuperMarket service that allows users to compare categories such as broadband and insurance. Jefferies sees these AI-enabled features functioning primarily as a top-of-funnel acquisition channel that funnels users toward the company’s core comparison platform.
On valuation, Jefferies places a present value on the company of about \u00A31.19 billion using a discounted cash flow framework. The broker’s assumptions include an 11.2% weighted average cost of capital and a terminal growth rate of 1.5%. Under these inputs, the stock is viewed as trading around 9 times FY26 earnings and offering a dividend yield close to 7%.
Jefferies acknowledged a near-term margin headwind stemming from Mony’s SuperSaveClub loyalty programme. The broker expects this initiative to weigh on adjusted EBITDA margin in FY26, but to support longer-term margin expansion through improved customer retention and lower marketing intensity. The forecast envisions a modest dip in adjusted EBITDA margin in FY26 followed by steady margin improvement through 2030.
For FY26 specifically, Jefferies projects revenue of \u00A3448 million, which it describes as broadly in line with market consensus, and adjusted EBITDA that is slightly ahead of expectations. The broker expects the insurance segment, which represents roughly two-thirds of group revenue, to resume growth in 2026 as premium increases prompt higher switching activity, forecasting 5% growth in that segment next year.
Jefferies also notes Mony’s market-share gains in recent years despite intensive advertising by competitors, and suggests the company could be positioned to benefit if some rivals face disruption or pursue strategic sales.
Dividends are highlighted as a structural support for the equity. Jefferies anticipates a payout ratio above 80% and a free cash flow yield in excess of 10% for FY26. Its scenario analysis sets a base-case valuation at 230 pence, a bull case at 250 pence, and a bear case at 125 pence, which the broker presents as indicating a favourable risk-reward profile.
Analyst takeaway - Jefferies frames the upgrade around two pillars: the limited near-term threat from AI to the core comparison model due to regulatory and data constraints, and the compelling income characteristics underpinned by a high anticipated dividend payout and substantial free cash flow conversion in FY26.