Stock Markets March 30, 2026

Jefferies Raises Sodexo to Buy After First External CEO Hire; Sees Valuation Near Trough

Broker lifts price target to €55 as new leadership takes the helm amid two years of share weakness and pressure in North America

By Priya Menon
Jefferies Raises Sodexo to Buy After First External CEO Hire; Sees Valuation Near Trough

Jefferies upgraded Sodexo SA to 'buy' from 'hold' and raised its price target to €55 from €41 following the appointment of the group's first externally hired chief executive. The firm cites persistent operational weakness, particularly in North America, subdued net new wins and a valuation it sees as close to a trough, while projecting modest margin pressure in the near term before a gradual recovery.

Key Points

  • Jefferies upgraded Sodexo to 'buy' and raised its price target to €55 from €41 after the appointment of Thierry Delaporte as the company's first external CEO.
  • Sodexo shares traded at €42.66 and have fallen about 40% since 2024, lagging Compass Group and Aramark by approximately 45% and 85% respectively; North America is identified as the main area of weakness.
  • Jefferies projects FY26 adjusted EPS at €4.08 and FY27 at €4.21, expects adjusted EBIT margin to dip to 4% in FY26 before recovering to 4.7% by FY29, and values the base case at roughly 13x FY27 earnings.

Jefferies has upgraded Sodexo to a buy rating, lifting its target price to €55 from €41 after the French food services operator named Thierry Delaporte as Group CEO - the first time the company has hired an external chief executive since its 1966 founding. The move follows roughly two years of share price declines for the company.

Sodexo shares were trading at €42.66 at the time of the broker note. Jefferies notes the stock has dropped about 40% since 2024, underperforming peers Compass Group and Aramark by roughly 45% and 85% respectively on its measures.

Delaporte assumed the Group CEO role in November 2025 and concurrently took on the North America CEO responsibilities. He is the group's fifth CEO since 1966 and the first recruited from outside the company. Sophie Bellon, who left her executive role a year before her term was due to end, remains as Chairwoman and said Delaporte "will be fully empowered to make decisions, set his own strategy priorities, and evaluate the organization."

Delaporte's background, as outlined by Jefferies, includes 25 years at Capgemini where he served in senior operational roles including Global COO and Deputy CEO, with nearly 15 of those years spent in the United States, followed by his tenure as Wipro Group CEO from 2020 to 2024.

On the financial outlook, Jefferies set its adjusted EPS estimate for FY26 at €4.08, which it notes is roughly 10% below consensus, and at €4.21 for FY27, about 12% below consensus. The brokerage anticipates adjusted EBIT margin will decline to 4% in FY26 from 4.7% in FY25, before gradually recovering back to 4.7% by FY29.

Jefferies points to weak net new wins as a central explanation for Sodexo's relative underperformance. The firm reports Sodexo's net new wins were 0.3% in FY25, compared with 4.5% for Compass and 5.6% for Aramark. Retention at Sodexo was 93.3% versus 96.3% at both peers, using company-provided figures cited by Jefferies. Capital expenditure as a share of revenue was lower at Sodexo as well - 2% in FY25 compared with 3.3% for Compass.

The brokerage also highlights restructuring spend of €561 million over FY20-25 and says recent margin improvement has been driven more by cost-cutting measures than by operating leverage.

North America remains the primary area of concern. Jefferies reports the region accounted for 46% of group revenue and 53% of adjusted EBIT in FY25, amounting to €11.18 billion of revenue and €1.22 billion of adjusted EBIT. The firm expects net new wins in North America to be low-to mid-single digit negative in the first half of FY26.

On valuation, Jefferies calculates the stock is trading at roughly 10 times forward earnings on its estimates versus a historical average of about 13 times. Its €55 base case target equates to an approximate FY27 P/E of 13 times. The broker's downside scenario produces a €35 fair value at about 9 times FY27 earnings, while an upside case implies a €70 target at roughly 16 times.

ProPicks AI and stock-screening context: The article noted that a model called ProPicks AI evaluates EXHO across more than 100 financial metrics to generate stock ideas, citing that the tool has identified past winners including Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). The description states the model is data-driven and neutral in its approach to assessing risk-reward.


Bottom line - Jefferies' upgrade reflects a view that Sodexo's valuation has moved close to trough levels following a prolonged share decline and that the appointment of an external CEO marks a material governance and strategic change. However, the broker's forecasts imply continued margin pressure in the near term and slower sales momentum, particularly in North America, before a targeted recovery through FY29.

Risks

  • Continued weak net new wins and retention in North America could further pressure revenue and margins - impacts the food services and corporate contract sectors.
  • Near-term margin deterioration driven by operating performance rather than sustainable operating leverage; reliance on cost-cutting may limit durable profitability improvement - impacts profitability across service operations.
  • Lower capital expenditure intensity relative to peers could constrain service capability or long-term competitiveness if not addressed - affects operational capacity in the facilities and catering market.

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