Stock Markets March 9, 2026

Jefferies Highlights Mining Names Seen as Defensive as Markets Turn Risk-Off

Investment bank points to miners with structural resilience while warning oil-driven economic shocks remain the main downside

By Leila Farooq AA
Jefferies Highlights Mining Names Seen as Defensive as Markets Turn Risk-Off
AA

Jefferies has singled out a group of mining companies it views as relatively defensive amid recent equity market volatility. The bank argues commodity prices should stay supported by geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, but cautions that a pronounced spike in oil that harms the global economy would change that outlook.

Key Points

  • Jefferies sees several mining stocks as relatively defensive amid recent equity market risk-off moves.
  • The bank views commodity prices as likely resilient due to geopolitical risk and inflationary pressures, but cautions that a large oil price spike that damages global growth would change the outlook.
  • Companies highlighted include Glencore, Alcoa, Peabody Energy, and Core Natural Resources, with specific corporate developments noted for each.

Jefferies has identified several mining companies it views as positioned to withstand the current bout of market turbulence, saying commodity markets look likely to remain resilient even as geopolitical tensions and risk-off sentiment pressure equities.

The investment bank's analysis comes after a week in which mining stocks were sold off in line with broader equity declines and investor concerns about a possible economic slowdown. Jefferies argues that, on a fundamental basis, the sector could remain constructive provided oil price spikes do not materially impair global growth.

Glencore

Jefferies notes that commodity prices should hold up and that mining equities can act as somewhat defensive assets while the conflict-related risks persist, again subject to the caveat about oil-driven economic stress. The company recently ended merger talks with Rio Tinto. In addition, Glencore is reportedly close to a transaction to divest its 70% stake in Kazzinc, the Kazakhstan-based zinc and gold producer.

Alcoa

Despite what Jefferies characterizes as positive fundamentals across the metals complex, Alcoa was among the mining names hit in the recent selloff amid a general risk-off move in equities. The firm that provided the note observed that the rally in metals and mining shares over the prior six months may have reflected heightened geopolitical risk, a structurally weakening U.S. dollar and the risk of inflation. Alcoa has disclosed plans to sell multiple closed or curtailed sites to the data center industry. After a period of relative outperformance, Morgan Stanley moved its rating on the company to Equalweight from Overweight.

Peabody Energy

Jefferies highlights the role that the growing use of artificial intelligence in mining could play across the sector. The firm says broader AI adoption has the potential to lift productivity, reduce dependence on fossil fuels and other consumables, lower environmental footprints, improve safety outcomes, and boost profitability and returns. Peabody reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat analyst expectations, delivering revenue of $1.02 billion and earnings per share of $0.08.

Core Natural Resources

Jefferies also points to Core Natural Resources, saying the company should be well positioned in the event that fears around the conflict lead to an economic downturn.


This analysis emphasizes two central constraints on Jefferies' constructive view: first, that commodity prices remain supported by geopolitical and inflation-related factors; and second, that a significant oil price shock that meaningfully weakens global economic activity would undermine the defensive qualities the bank assigns to these miners.

Risks

  • A sharp spike in oil prices that materially harms global economic activity could undermine the defensive case for mining equities - this would impact commodity and equity markets.
  • General risk-off sentiment in equities tied to fears of a growth slowdown can drive mining shares lower despite supportive commodity fundamentals - this affects equities and related sectors such as data center real estate in Alcoa's case.
  • Geopolitical tensions and related market uncertainty create sustained volatility in commodity prices and miner valuations, leaving sector performance sensitive to evolving risk perceptions.

More from Stock Markets

Senate Confirms Markwayne Mullin as Homeland Security Secretary Mar 23, 2026 Asian Markets Edge Higher as Mixed Signals on Iran Temper Gains Mar 23, 2026 AWS to Boost India Data Centre Capacity to 2-3 GW Amid Expansion Push Mar 23, 2026 Fire Erupts After Major Explosion at Valero Refinery in Port Arthur, Texas Mar 23, 2026 US Futures Slip After Iran Denies Talks With Washington, Clouding De-escalation Hopes Mar 23, 2026