Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices in India climbed about 4% on a weekly basis to reach Rs60,000 per tonne, a level roughly 31% higher than the mid-December trough, according to Morgan Stanley. Rebar prices also registered gains, rising about 5% week-on-week to Rs51,400 per tonne, representing a roughly 20% increase since mid-December.
Trading dynamics shifted as domestic HRC now trades at about a 1% premium to import parity prices when accounting for the safeguard duty. That contrasts with a roughly 4% discount recorded the prior week, indicating a tighter relationship between local and import pricing driven in part by the duty.
On the raw materials side, China CFR iron ore with 61% Fe content was largely unchanged week-on-week at close to $108 per tonne. Domestic iron ore sold by NMDC continues to trade at approximately a 60% discount to parity. Hard coking coal from Australia moved slightly higher, up about 1% week-on-week to $237 per tonne, which represents a 7% increase on a month-on-month basis.
Domestic steel spreads expanded roughly 7% during the week and are up about 43% from mid-December lows, trading near 12% above the April 2025 peak. Inventory readings have declined and import volumes have trended lower in the wake of the safeguard duty implementation, a pattern reflected in Joint Plant Committee data. Morgan Stanley noted that seasonally strong demand should be able to absorb output increases tied to recent capacity additions.
Equity performance in the sector has outpaced the broader market so far in 2025. Steel stocks climbed about 27% compared with a 9% rise in the Sensex, a gap that analysts attribute in part to the 12% interim safeguard duty. Year-to-date through the period covered, steel equities are up around 4%, while the Sensex has fallen by roughly 14%.
The safeguard duty that is influencing pricing and trade flows remains in effect until April 2028.
Data highlights
- HRC: Rs60,000 per tonne, up ~4% week-on-week, +31% since mid-December.
- Rebar: Rs51,400 per tonne, up ~5% week-on-week, +20% since mid-December.
- China CFR 61% Fe iron ore: about $108 per tonne, flat week-on-week.
- NMDC domestic iron ore: ~60% discount to parity.
- Australian hard coking coal: $237 per tonne, +1% week-on-week, +7% month-on-month.
- Safeguard duty: 12% interim rate; effective until April 2028.
Note: Inventory declines and lower import activity are reflected in Joint Plant Committee statistics.