Stock Markets May 11, 2026 06:22 AM

Holcim and Ferrovial Highlight JP Morgan Calls as UK Housing Softens Amid Iran Tensions

Carbon-storing concrete pilot and stronger-than-expected infrastructure earnings contrast with softer UK housing data and mixed airport outlooks

By Ajmal Hussain FER PAC

Holcim has deployed a commercial-scale carbon-storing concrete product in South Germany using Paebbl’s Rebond technology, while Ferrovial reported Q1 EBITDA that beat consensus and JP Morgan estimates. JP Morgan maintains overweight ratings on Holcim and Ferrovial. Fraport’s traffic outlook was cut for 2026 and its model trimmed, and Aena’s share receipt after a merger left JP Morgan with an underweight rating. UK housing indicators cooled in April amid higher input-cost inflation linked to the Iran conflict.

Holcim and Ferrovial Highlight JP Morgan Calls as UK Housing Softens Amid Iran Tensions
FER PAC

Key Points

  • Holcim used Paebbl’s Rebond technology and Goldbeck to deploy a carbon-storing concrete product for a logistics centre foundation in South Germany; J.P. Morgan rates Holcim "overweight" with a CHF84 price target.
  • Ferrovial delivered Q1 group EBITDA of €321 million, beating company consensus by 9.2% and J.P. Morgan’s estimate by 4.5%, with Toll Roads and Construction driving the outperformance; J.P. Morgan rates Ferrovial "overweight" with a €65 price target.
  • UK housing indicators weakened in April: Halifax HPI fell 0.1% month-on-month and the construction PMI dropped to 39.7 as input-cost inflation rose amid the Iran conflict; J.P. Morgan holds mixed ratings on UK housebuilders with listed price targets noted.

Holcim has applied a carbon-storing concrete formulation in a commercial-scale construction project, collaborating with Swedish startup Paebbl and general contractor Goldbeck to lay the foundations of a logistics centre in southern Germany. The work uses Paebbl’s Rebond process, which converts captured CO2 into a powder of magnesium carbonate and silicon dioxide that can substitute for a portion of conventional cement, with the result that the captured carbon is permanently locked into the material.

J.P. Morgan carries an "overweight" rating on Holcim and has set a CHF84 price target.


On the infrastructure side, Ferrovial reported group EBITDA for the first quarter of €321 million. That result was 9.2% ahead of company consensus and 4.5% ahead of J.P. Morgan’s estimates, with the outperformance driven by Construction and Toll Roads, which themselves came in around 4.4% above consensus.

Separately, the 407-ETR toll operator reported year-on-year traffic growth of 8.2% and a Q1 EBITDA that was 3.6% above J.P. Morgan’s estimate. J.P. Morgan rates Ferrovial "overweight" and assigns a €65 price target.


J.P. Morgan updated its model for Fraport after the company’s Q1 results. The bank reduced its 2026 traffic growth estimate to 1%, which implies roughly 2% growth over the final eight months of 2026 after assuming a 10% year-on-year traffic decline in April. The revision lowers 2026E EBITDA by approximately 1%.

Management at Fraport confirmed guidance "on the basis of continued security of kerosene supply," and the company flagged significant uncertainty for the year. As a consequence of the model changes, J.P. Morgan trimmed its Dec-27 price target from €86 to €85 while maintaining an "overweight" rating.


In transaction-related news, GAP implemented the merger of Cross Border Xpress and its technical assistance business. GAP issued 89,740,731 new net shares and Aena received 38,994,777 GAP shares, representing 6.55% of GAP’s capital, of which 25,263,873 are BB shares and 13,730,904 are B shares.

J.P. Morgan places Aena at "underweight" with a €21 price target, compared with a €24.3 close reported as of May 7, 2026.


Turning to the UK housing market, Halifax’s April House Price Index showed a month-on-month decline of 0.1% after a 0.5% drop in March. On a year-on-year basis, prices were up 0.4%, with the average house price recorded at £299,313.

The UK construction Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a five-month low of 39.7 in April, down from 45.6 in March. Economists had expected the PMI to rise to 46; instead the index signalled a sharper contraction, with input-cost inflation pushed to its highest level since June 2022 amid the Iran conflict.

Among listed homebuilders, J.P. Morgan’s coverage includes an "overweight" rating and a 520p price target for Barratt Redrow against a 263p close as of May 7, 2026, which the bank calculates implies 97% upside on a 2026E P/E of 8.3x. Crest Nicholson is rated "neutral" with a 160p price target and was trading at 73p.


The week’s corporate and macro data paint a mixed picture: technological and operational advances in building materials and solid infrastructure results sit alongside weaker near-term demand signals in UK construction and airports, and revised traffic assumptions for Fraport.

Risks

  • Airport traffic forecasts and earnings remain uncertain - Fraport flagged significant uncertainty for the year and J.P. Morgan reduced its 2026 traffic growth forecast and trimmed its Dec-27 price target, which affects airport operators and travel-related infrastructure.
  • Input-cost inflation pressures - The Iran conflict pushed input-cost inflation to its highest since June 2022, contributing to a weaker UK construction PMI and representing a headwind for construction and housebuilding sectors.
  • Reliance on fuel supply conditions - Fraport’s guidance is conditional "on the basis of continued security of kerosene supply," indicating operational risk tied to fuel availability for airports and carriers.

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