Stock Markets January 29, 2026

H&M posts stronger-than-expected Q4 profit but warns of weak winter sales

Operating profit and margins rise on cost control and inventory gains, while December-January sales in local currencies fall 2%

By Sofia Navarro
H&M posts stronger-than-expected Q4 profit but warns of weak winter sales

Swedish fashion retailer H&M reported a sharper-than-expected increase in operating profit for its fiscal fourth quarter, driven by lower costs and improved inventory productivity, yet signalled a decline in December-January sales measured in local currencies. Management cited strong Black Friday demand and the timing of Chinese New Year as factors behind subdued sales in the subsequent month.

Key Points

  • H&M's fiscal fourth-quarter operating profit rose to 6.36 billion crowns from 4.62 billion a year earlier, beating the mean LSEG analyst forecast of 5.53 billion.
  • The company's operating margin expanded to 10.7% from 7.4%, supported by cost control and improved inventory productivity alongside a 2% organic sales increase in the quarter.
  • Management forecasts December and January local-currency sales to be down 2%, citing strong Black Friday sales in November and the timing of Chinese New Year as contributing factors.

H&M said on Thursday that operating profit in its fiscal fourth quarter - the period that includes the crucial Black Friday weekend - rose to 6.36 billion crowns ($723.5 million) from 4.62 billion a year earlier, surpassing the mean analyst forecast of 5.53 billion in an LSEG poll. The company reported an organic sales increase of 2% in the period and said the operating margin widened to 10.7% from 7.4% a year ago.

"Through a strengthened customer offering, good cost control and improved inventory productivity, we continue to take important steps towards all our long-term targets in a challenging environment," CEO Daniel Erver said in a statement.

Despite the quarter's profit beat, H&M flagged weaker sales at the start of the winter season. The group said it expects December and January sales measured in local currencies to be down 2%.

H&M attributed the softer December performance in part to very strong demand during Black Friday in November, which it said led to subdued demand the following month. The company also noted that Chinese New Year, which falls in February, weighed on sales comparisons.

Analysts had anticipated only modest sales growth in the fourth quarter as consumers in many markets continued to exercise caution with spending. H&M has faced challenges growing sales as online competitors such as Shein draw shoppers with very low prices while larger rivals like Inditex's Zara occupy the more upmarket segment of fast fashion.

While investors welcomed the margin improvement in September, some analysts have said that a full turnaround hinges on management's ability to rekindle sales growth across the group.

The company proposed a dividend of 7.10 crowns per share for 2025, up from 6.80 crowns for 2024. That proposed payout was above the 6.83 crowns that analysts had expected in the LSEG poll. ($1 = 8.7903 Swedish crowns)

Risks

  • Sluggish consumer spending may continue to constrain sales growth for fashion retailers and the wider consumer discretionary sector.
  • Competitive pressure from ultra-low-price online retailers, such as Shein, and the differing market positions of larger rivals like Inditex could hamper H&M's ability to expand market share in apparel retail.
  • Seasonal timing and calendar effects, including the impact of large promotional events like Black Friday and the timing of Chinese New Year, can create volatility in month-to-month sales comparisons for apparel retailers.

More from Stock Markets

Tesla Debuts New All-Wheel Drive Model Y Trim in U.S.; Premium Option Also Launched Feb 2, 2026 Eastroc Beverage Shares Start Trading in Hong Kong at Offer Price After $1.3 Billion IPO Feb 2, 2026 SoftBank unit and Intel to jointly develop 'Z-Angle' memory technology Feb 2, 2026 M EVO GLOBAL ACQUISITION CORP II Raises $300 Million in IPO Aimed at Critical Minerals Deals Feb 2, 2026 NRW Holdings Shares Rise After Securing A$175m Rio Tinto Earthworks Contract Feb 2, 2026