Greencoat UK Wind PLC recorded a fourth-quarter net asset value (NAV) of 136.1 pence per share, a decrease of 3.3% from the preceding quarter's 140.7 pence per share. Management attributed the fall primarily to cuts in power price forecasts, which reduced NAV by 3.4 pence per share.
According to the company, roughly half of the power-price related NAV hit came from adjustments to short-dated futures. The remaining portion reflected changes to long-dated power price assumptions, which were lowered in response to weaker gas price expectations.
Operational cash generation provided a positive contribution to NAV during the quarter. As wind speeds returned to more typical levels in Q4, the company reported a 4.7 pence per share uplift from cash generation. However, this benefit was substantially offset by outflows and accounting movements: dividend payments reduced NAV by 2.6 pence per share, depreciation reduced it by 1.2 pence per share, and updates to special purpose vehicle (SPV) budgets also subtracted 1.2 pence per share.
On the balance sheet and capital structure front, Greencoat UK Wind reported aggregate group debt of £2,126 million at year-end, with gearing measured at 42.0% of gross asset value. During 2025 the group achieved gross disposal proceeds of £181 million, and management indicated it is exploring additional disposals, likely to be comparable in size to recent transactions.
The company generated £291 million in net cash across 2025. Dividend cover was reported at 1.8 times for the fourth quarter and 1.3 times for the full year 2025. A separate payment of £25 million made on January 2, 2026 - equivalent to 0.1 times in terms of dividend cover - will be carried into this year.
Despite encountering challenges on generation output, Greencoat UK Wind remains aligned with its guidance for approximately £1 billion of free cash flow post-dividend through 2030. The company has not provided dividend guidance for 2026, citing the need to await the outcome of the Renewables Obligation consultation.
Bottom line: Reduced power price forecasts, driven partly by lower gas price expectations and near-term futures, were the primary cause of the Q4 NAV decline. Improved wind conditions supported cash generation, but that uplift was largely neutralized by dividends, depreciation and SPV budget revisions. The balance sheet shows substantial debt and continued disposal activity, while dividend policy for 2026 remains pending the Renewables Obligation consultation outcome.