Stock Markets January 26, 2026

GoTo Shares Rise After Citi Flags Profit Inflection, Lifts EBITDA Guidance

Analyst notes improving profitability and cash generation as fintech business drives earnings; regulatory and merger hurdles remain

By Jordan Park
GoTo Shares Rise After Citi Flags Profit Inflection, Lifts EBITDA Guidance

GoTo's stock climbed intraday after Citigroup highlighted a stronger profitability trajectory and the company raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Management reported positive group-level adjusted EBITDA for the first time and positive operating cash flow, while cautioning that reported earnings are affected by equity-accounted Tokopedia losses. Citi cautioned that regulatory noise and merger uncertainty with Grab remain unresolved.

Key Points

  • GoTo shares rose as much as 3.3% after Citigroup highlighted stronger profitability and raised EBITDA expectations.
  • The company reported its first quarter of positive group-level adjusted EBITDA after five quarters of sequential improvement and achieved positive operating cash flow.
  • GoTo increased fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to 1.8 trillion - 1.9 trillion rupiah from 1.6 trillion rupiah; fintech remains the primary earnings driver, supported by user acquisition and engagement efforts.

Shares of Indonesian e-commerce and technology group GoTo rose as much as 3.3% after Citigroup underscored the company’s improving profit profile and noted a higher earnings outlook.

At Citi’s ASEAN event, Citi analyst Ferry Wong said GoTo signaled a "clear profitability inflection through 3Q25," marking the company’s first quarter of positive group-level adjusted EBITDA following five consecutive quarters of sequential improvement. According to Wong, the firm also generated positive operating cash flow during the same period.

Company executives told investors that headline earnings remain "optically distorted by equity-accounted Tokopedia losses," while stressing that the underlying trends across the business are strengthening. Management indicated that when those equity-accounted effects are stripped out, the operating picture is more constructive.

GoTo lifted its fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of 1.8 trillion to 1.9 trillion Indonesian rupiah, up from a prior forecast of 1.6 trillion rupiah. The revised guidance was highlighted by Citi as evidence that profitability momentum is gaining traction.

Wong cautioned, however, that "regulatory noise persists" around the company. He also noted that merger discussions between GoTo and Grab remain uncertain, with progress contingent on stakeholder alignment and antitrust considerations.

Within GoTo’s business mix, fintech operations continue to be the dominant earnings driver. Citi observed that fintech’s contribution is supported by ongoing user acquisition and engagement initiatives, which are central to the company’s near-term profit mix.


Context for investors - The market reaction to Citi’s commentary appears to reflect growing investor focus on improving cash generation and a clearer path to sustained group-level profitability, while also weighing regulatory and strategic transaction risks.

Risks

  • Regulatory uncertainty - Citi noted that "regulatory noise persists," which could affect GoTo’s strategic plans and market confidence.
  • Merger uncertainty - Discussions between GoTo and Grab are unresolved and contingent on stakeholder alignment and antitrust approval, creating ambiguity around potential transaction outcomes.
  • Earnings distortion from equity-accounted losses - Management warned that reported results are "optically distorted by equity-accounted Tokopedia losses," complicating the interpretation of headline profitability metrics.

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