Goldman Sachs has revised its view of U.S. recession risk, lowering its 12-month probability by 5 percentage points to 25%. The bank nevertheless continues to expect an economic profile characterized by growth below its long-run trend and a labor market that will experience a rising unemployment rate.
Alongside the reduced recession probability, Goldman Sachs has updated its forecast for Federal Reserve policy. The firm now anticipates two 25 basis point rate cuts, with the first occurring in December 2026 and a second following in March 2027. That schedule represents a three-month delay relative to the timing the bank had previously projected.
Goldman Sachs says the shift in its interest-rate timeline reflects two principal factors that it has identified: a lower probability of a near-term recession and a higher path for near-term core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. The combination of those signals led the bank to push back the expected start of Fed easing while maintaining the view that eventual cuts will total two quarter-point moves.
Turning to Europe, Goldman Sachs remains of the view that the European Central Bank will raise rates twice by 25 basis points, with the increases arriving in June and September of 2026. The bank further expects those hikes to be reversed - or trimmed back - in early 2027.
On China, Goldman Sachs describes economic momentum as solid but notes a notable internal imbalance. The bank highlights a marked divergence between robust goods production and comparatively weak domestic demand, calling that gap severe. That assessment signals continued unevenness in China economic dynamics even as overall growth proceeds at a solid pace.
The bank overall picture places lower near-term recession risk and slightly later monetary easing in the U.S., continued tightening then easing in Europe, and divergent forces within China's expansion.
Key points
- Goldman Sachs reduced its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 25% from a higher prior estimate.
- The bank now expects two 25 basis point Fed cuts in December 2026 and March 2027, a three-month delay from its earlier forecast, driven by lower recession risk and higher near-term core PCE inflation.
- Goldman Sachs projects two 25 basis point ECB hikes in June and September 2026 followed by reversals in early 2027, and describes China as growing at a solid pace but with a severe imbalance between goods production and domestic demand.
Impacted sectors - The bank's forecasts touch market areas such as interest-rate sensitive sectors and fixed income, European financial markets tied to ECB policy, and manufacturing and consumer-oriented sectors in China due to the goods-output versus domestic-demand imbalance.
Risks and uncertainties
- Near-term core PCE inflation is higher than previously expected, influencing the timing of Fed rate reductions - an uncertainty for interest-rate markets and sectors sensitive to borrowing costs.
- Goldman Sachs anticipates a rising unemployment rate, which introduces downside risk to consumer spending and labor-sensitive sectors.
- China's sharp mismatch between strong goods production and weak domestic demand is described as severe, creating uncertainty for exporters, manufacturers, and domestically focused consumer industries.